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big problem with the workaholic penalty


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Authorbig problem with the workaholic penalty
Did you know that:
Roulette is a quick way to get rich.


maybe this statement that appears in tips in home page should be revised, so a new player won't be trapped inside this hole.
a gold sucking tool to be revised? i wouldn't count on this ;}
maybe this statement that appears in tips in home page should be revised, so a new player won't be trapped inside this hole.

Let's change it in:
Owning a roulette is a quick way to get rich.
it's simple math

38 numbers in this roulette 1-36 and 0 + 00
0 and 00 are no part of any 1:2 bets like lines and thirds or any 1:1 bets like red/black, even/uneven or 1-18 / 19-36

If you bet X your chances are as follows:

In case of 1:1 bets

Chance to win: 18/38 - gain 2X
Chance to loose 20/38 - gain 0

combined:
18/38 * 2X + 20/38 * 0 - 1X (your initial bet)
= 18/38 * 2X - 38/38 * 1X
= 36/38 * 1X - 38/38 * 1X
= -2/38 * X

In case of 1:2 bets

Chance to win: 12/38 - gain 3X
Chance to loose 26/38 - gain 0

combined:
12/38 * 3X + 26/38 * 0 - 1X (your initial bet)
= 12/38 * 3X - 38/38 * 1X
= 36/38 * 1X - 38/38 * 1X
= -2/38 * X

In case of 1:36 bets

Chance to win: 1/38 - gain 35X
Chance to loose 37/38 - gain 0

combined:
1/38 * 35X + 37/38 * 0 - 1X (your initial bet)
= 1/38 * 35X - 38/38 * 1X
= 35/38 * 1X - 38/38 * 1X
= -3/38 * X


I don't know the exact factors for betting on only 2 or 4 numbers, but the pattern will always be the same. Statisticaly you will always loose a small fraction of your bet to the bank due to presence of 0 and 00.

Of course this doesn't mean that you will always loose, just on avarage.

Due to the fact that the chances doesn't improve, you are more likely to end at the statistical outcome the more often you play - asuming that you don't change your betting behaviour.

You can win against roulette in the beginning, but the longer you play the more you are bound to loose.

If 1 of 20.000 players has got a fortune by playiing roulette this shouldn't held up as example that anyone can make it but rather that 19.999 people haven't got rich and most of these probably got bancrupt.
Many good advices to you Ghost-Face, if you don't want to hear them, there is only one problem with the workaholic penalty: You and your playing style. Requires a lot of stupidity to get in a situation like yours, imho.

And the most funny thing is, that you offered me some GH-Arts via pm...
Artifact ------ Cost in the market---------i will sell for

GH helmet-------------20,000-------------------------18,000
GH shield --------------2300 --------------------------2000
GH amulet --------------5700 --------------------------5000
GH boots ---------------3000 --------------------------2500
2x GH ring of dexterity-5000(for one) -----------------4000
-----------------------------------------------------------
Total cost ----------36,000(in market) ------31,500(from me) [quote/]

...while you were saying you ended up with no arts left... another lie
In case of 1:36 bets

Chance to win: 1/38 - gain 35X
Chance to loose 37/38 - gain 0

combined:
1/38 * 35X + 37/38 * 0 - 1X (your initial bet)
= 1/38 * 35X - 38/38 * 1X
= 35/38 * 1X - 38/38 * 1X
= -3/38 * X


why don't you win 36x? If you only win 35x, shouldn't you win on red/black only 1x not 2x?
And i don't think there is a combination that lets you lose more than -2/38*X

another few things: Your wins are unlimited, your losses not. If you have a winning streak, roulette still can keep playing with you until you're on even. But if you lose you will reach a point where you have lost all your money without a chance to "even it out". And even then, be careful: Just because you lost 30 times the chance to win is as small as it was when you started. Roulette only should have a "fair" outcome for each number rolled once in 38 turns in an infinite time. In every other timespan there will always be differences (like the 27 rolling twice as much as the 26).
And last but not least: I'm also a victim of evil roulette. Deal with it and stop playing ;)
Van_GM .. I think you are right ... the win is 36x .. and that means that on average, whoever plays roulette will loose 2/38 of his/her bet
I cannot believe that someone who is as irresponsible as Ghost_Face is is still able to get loans and keep going. It is the fault of the players who keep forking money into that hole, throwing him gold when he had demonstrated that he isn't reliable.

Seems interesting that he admits to having been forced to abandon three accounts for a total of 900k+ in debt, and is once again in debt yet he insists that he knows what he is doing...
MathProfessor:
Let's change it in:
Owning a roulette is a quick way to get rich.

I think ... Should alter to this:

Did you know that:
Roulette is a quick way to get poor (or rich).

Perhaps may avoid giving rise to such problem.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
off topic. locked
closed by Pang (2010-02-01 18:00:56)
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