| Author | Thiefing as dwarf |
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There is about 30 types of caravan. Saying We have 9 factions in this game (17 if we count alt) is like a newbie words. It's like a chance to loot elements in mercenaries guild - after 100 wins you can get 5 elements instead od 20, but after 200 wins you can get 50 elements instead of 40. in long run the chance is suppose to same for all faction like krabylos said.
And I as playing as a dwarf never think about it I get as opponent a dwarf type caravan too often |
i got 42 dwarf caravans out of the 194 ambushes i recently played, so it's consistent with latawica's stats. i don't think the probability depends on either number of faction, or number of alt-faction, or the faction you're playing.
22/100 is too often ? dude that is observation bias.
it's definitely not observation bias. if you really understand the term, you won't say it like that. and 22/100 IS too oftern, unless you can come up with a reasonable explanation.
There is about 30 types of caravan, in long run the chance is suppose to same for all faction.
then the probability of dwarf caravans should be 3/30, but the stat is obviously not.
And I as playing as a dwarf never think about it I get as opponent a dwarf type caravan too often
a simple count of your caravans can tell you the number. |
for Skoczek:
Again, that's exactly what I thought. I always thought that all factions appear with same frequency, clearly that's not the case.
And I know you may say "well play infinite number of tg battles" but if we (safely) assume a normal distribution, then 200 battles, with a success count (# of times dwarf appeared) of about 36 (I use 36 for simplicity of taking its sq. root), the sq. root of that is the factor by which the population standard deviation is reduced, hence by a factor of 6. In other words, the standard deviation now would be very low. Now we tried this on two different occasions, AND it holds even in groups of 100 instead of 200. Now if we take into account the z-scores of all the scenarios considering the "true" frequency to be only 1/9, as would be implied by in long run the chance is suppose to same for all faction, then if you consider that being a null hypothesis, you can disprove it with a very large confidence interval.
I don't wanna write confusing and messy text, but simply put based on the data I saw it is very strongly implied that all factions do not appear with same frequency. |
Maybe not all factions have the same probability tied to them on purpose by the admins?
We know that the distribution of (active) players is not equal amongst factions, perhaps it's a similar story for TG caravans?
Not implying the rate of TG caravan is the same as player rate.. otherwise I'd see a lot more dark elf.
It could be that within the 9 factions, dwarves have a 2/9 (random number) whereas tribal have a 1/18 chance. Then RNG rolls dice on the build.
And are there really 30 types of caravan..? That seems like a lot tbh. |
There is about 30 types of caravan. Saying We have 9 factions in this game (17 if we count alt) is like a newbie words.
You seem to be very convinced about your right. Maybe there is 30 or more types. I don't know any official info about it so I can't be so sure as you.
How do you know what is algorithm of picking up caravan for single battle? Maybe first they pick one of factions and then can set diferenct combination of alts and builds. In this way it should be 1/9.
IF you want to check some stats use this guys log
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_info.php?id=45977
I don't think that combat log for lat 10 years is trustworthy. Admins keep changing rules and game mechanics so you can't compare different periods.
I checked my combat log for last 10 days and as I wrote before nn 200 battles I had 21,5% dwarfs. |
I got more DW caravans when I was playing as DE for years and since a year ago, and I do get more DW caravans again as a DW now.
I do get the same caravans I used to get as DE, DW is the most frequent and the might/holly/chaos/ explanation does make sense to me and less I get from barbarians and tribals. |
| I also always run into more dwarf caravans then the others, thought it was just me. Just counted the last 50 AI battles and 16 of them were dwarfs. |
In last 100 caravans i got 21 dwarf ones, many players have similar stats
so i don't think the chance is the same for all factions :) |
| the chance is the same for all build. since other faction mostly have two builds while dwarf has three then dwarf will appears more often. |
If I counted it correctly, there are 16 possible caravan setups
(when you go to character page and look on factions from up to down it is 2+2+1+2+1+2+2+3+1=16).
Dwarves are 3/16=18.75%
Why is it still so weird? :) |
Dwarves are 3/16=18.75%
all the stats we got here are above 20%, it's unlikely for all of them to fall right hand side of the expectation. 18.75% seems to be too low. |
i am sure which faction i played as thief...:) but i seen lot more short guys 2 months ago ...may the this dwarf are relocating lol
2017-10-02 21:25: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Barbarians
2017-10-02 20:09: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 17:13: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 17:07: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Demons
2017-10-02 17:02: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 16:11: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 15:59: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 14:51: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Demons
2017-10-02 14:48: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Dwarves
2017-10-02 14:41: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Elves
2017-10-02 12:55: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Necromancers
2017-10-02 11:10: • Poison Ivy[17] vs Caravan of Tribals |
| typo ...i am not sure which faction i used for thief :) |
all the stats we got here are above 20%, it's unlikely for all of them to fall right hand side of the expectation. 18.75% seems to be too low.
It might be within expected variation though.
but i seen lot more short guys 2 months ago ...may the this dwarf are relocating lol
Eh.. I once got about 7 DE in a row.. |
a simple count of your caravans can tell you the number.
9/75 for me |
It might be within expected variation though.
sample mean's distribution is symmetric, so it's 1/2 the probability for sample mean to be larger than the population mean. it's like flipping a coin. if you get a head 5 or 6 times in a row, you start to doubt whether the coin is fair. |
You seem to be very convinced about your right. Maybe there is 30 or more types. I don't know any official info about it so I can't be so sure as you.
How do you know what is algorithm of picking up caravan for single battle? Maybe first they pick one of factions and then can set diferenct combination of alts and builds. In this way it should be 1/9
You can check thik link
https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/angelsndemons/11-thieves-guild-reference-guide-t103.html
Of course topic is old but types of caravan are more or less similar like old times. Probably now are more types of caravan (like Chaos build for dwarf or demon) but I dont have time to check |
Some statistics of me:
last 144 caravans - 29 dwarves
that is 20.1%, very close to 18.75% ;) Even 22% is not very far from 18.75%.
for latawica:
I checked your log too and from your last 485 caravans 105 are dwarves what is 21.6%
I still don't consider it too much |
all the stats we got here are above 20%, it's unlikely for all of them to fall right hand side of the expectation. 18.75% seems to be too low.
First of all, the data I provided from a lev 22 player's log, had 17% in about 200 battles. Grouping in hundreds, he had 17/100 and 17/100.
However going by the other values given I do agree 18.75% appears to be slightly lower, but it is still quite credible.
Another possibility is that there are other hidden variables, in which case 18.75% is close but not exact.
Nonetheless, by the looks of it I think this is a very good estimate. And if we want to find a sort of an experimental probability, we need more data. Right now experimental probability seems to be about 20%, which is more or less in agreement with our prediction of 18.75% so this was a successful discussion ^^ |
I had never thought about this, and it's interesting. I recently played Dwarf and did lots of ambushes. I don't think Dwarf was the faction I faced the most. I actually found a streak of 32 ambushes with no Dwarf enemies (human players excluded). Pages 16-18 of my log, if anyone cares to check.
Dwarfs aside, I have the clear feeling that it's rare for me to catch a Tribal caravans. No idea why. |
