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| Author | rings |
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That's nonesense and your calculation too.
30 trys with a chance of 10% per try does not mean that you should have 3 rings. It means that you have a chance of (1 - 0.9^30 = 0.957) ca. 96% to have at least ONE ring. ;o)
Please try to read my post once more, bit more carefully. And try to investigate Bernoulli distribution: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_distribution
And then feel free to show your educational level =)
When there are 50 customers, the chance is still 10%. That means that if I try 30 times (as I actually did) then I could have about 3 rings.
For those who don't understand: the average in the case described is 3 rings. Try to calculate it yourself.
Actually there is about 4% chance (1 - 0.9^30) that I will have none of those. And that really happened. So I strongly beleive that somebody is cheating here.
For those who don't understand: 4% (4.239...%) chance is the chance to have 0 rings out from 30 tries with 10% chance of success in each. And that's the case. Actually this probability is significantly lower because there are surely less than 50 players trying, especially in night hours. | | #40 Luck is good, eah. But then this luck dont trigger even some times, then begin to think - why? And search for answers. | | #42 Since it is needed by many people. Is better to have second factory or double the ring production. | hm those calculations are assuming each person has an equal chance of getting a ring, and once he has gotten a ring he cannot get any more.
And why would people have equal chances of getting rings? Different connection speed / ping times, different clicking/typing speed, reaction time... the list goes on. Since there's no way of knowing how fast you are relative to other people who are trying to buy rings as well, the calculations, while theoretically sound, don't make much practical sense.
So since I have established that people do not possibly have equal chances of getting rings, I should go on to my next point.
If person A is for example, on average 20% faster than person B, person A is surely going to get more than 20% more rings than person B. Think of it as a 100m race. Your time is 14-16s, and you're competing against several people with 10s timings (as well as the multitudes of people who are about equal or slower than you). They are 50% faster, but do not win the race 50% more often than you. They will almost definitely win the race all the time.
In other words, the average player will get far less than his fair share of rings, because most of them go to the fastest 10% of players. | | well i dont like the feeling fastest players are favourized in any way :| thats the reason i play here not for example starcraft... | Even if it is not the place here ....
Please try to read my post once more, bit more carefully. And try to investigate Bernoulli distribution
It is right that the average should be 3 on these 30 attempts but you can not take an average value on 30 attempts. In perhaps 1.000.000 attempts you can calculate an average value but not in 30. The lesser attempts you have the more you have outliner results. :o(
(And since you adviced me think about this law in combination with your calculation even if I already explained it above. ^^
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
)
And I must admit that you are right, you "could" have 3 rings but you could also have written you "could have 8 rings". That was a trap for inattentive readers, wasn't it? ;o)
At least the chance to get nothing on 30 attempts is really really low (as you said about 4%).
PS: Increase workers count and create new facilities on most wanted artifacts. ;o) |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
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