| Author | How random is random? |
|---|
Thief Level 1 = Mask
Thief Level 2 = Mask
Thief Level 3 = Mask
Let's just say I am NOT happy.
(If I could bold and underline that, I would!)
9 items available, supposedly random distribution.
For one person to get the same item 3 times in succession is pretty rare (no, I don't know the exact probability).
It is my thinking that the "randomness" is weighted in some way so that the crap items (ie - mask) have a higher probability than actual useful items in the set.
Anyone want to buy Thief Masks? |
| No, more often people gained boots )) just unlucky. Try to change items. |
| yeah, LEVY got 3 boots lol. |
| Assuming that the distribution of the thief set items acutally IS random. That would mean that you have a 1/9 chance of getting any one particular item, which translates into 11.1% . Now getting the same item 3 times in a row would amount to 1/9*1/9*1/9=1/729. Or about 0.14% which admittedly is a low probability but not impossible :P |
Try exchange with other players.
I believe they might have similar problem like yours. |
This is a perfect example of how randomness works
if there is a set of 9 ---- 1/9 chance for each part every time |
for Rayva:
you're not alone) I know that guy on /ru who too got mask three times in a row) It happens :) |
| they all thieves set up their own shop..thief mask specialist...thief boots maker...etc,lol |
| well it has 2 happen 2 som1 |
| trade for other people who have the with boots or other theif items |
| i don't believe the distribution is completely even. look at the master hunters armor for another example of uneven distribution. i believe certain parts of the sets are a lot more rare than others. |
for one, the chance of getting 3 the same items = 1/9 * 1/9 = 1,2% (thou, if it were the amulet, no one would complain about ti i think)
the same mistake is see pl making when complaining about the 3 numbers in a row on roulette, the first one is 100%, then second one must match that one and thus has a small chance. |
| Mirz is correct, this is elemental probability calculus. |
| Mirz is not correct, Belerafon is right |
Both are right in their way it all depends on where you start from.
To clear this up:
Getting the same item 3 times is the chance which Belerafon has calculated, BUT this the for any of the 9 items (getting 3 amus, 3 armors,...) it is not fixed which of the items it will be.
To calculate the overall chance to get 3 times the same item, you have to multiply by 9 (the number of items possible).
This leads to 9 *1/9 * 1/9 *1/9 = 1/9 * 1/9 = 1/81 = 1,2% which is was Mirz had calculated. As you can see the first part 9 * 1/9 = 1 = 100% as Mirz had written.
Summary:
When you start with no item the chance of getting 3 times the same is 0,14%.
When you got one the chance getting the same twice more is 1,2%.
Hope it's clear now. |
maybe it's random this style:
chance to loot:
art1 (i.e.) boots = 30%
art2 (i.e.) mask = 30%
art3 (i.e.) ring = 19%
....
....
...
art8 (i.e.) armor = 5%
art9 (i.e.)xbow = 1% |
