| Author | Morale and luck bonuses |
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for Torrim:
You do realize that your opponent’s units have a higher initiative and thus more opportunities to receive luck and that the archers even have double shot? |
I did an simulation experiment with Matlab. I assumed that an unit makes 15 turns per battle and let the battle go 100 times, so 1500 morale tests for unit. Than I counted average X(number of morale befallen) and average Y(number of morale not befallen). Here are the results.
Morale 1, F=1/10
X=1,7 Y=13,3
Morale 2, F=2/10
X=3,21 Y=11,79
Morale 3, F=3/10
X=4,71 Y=10,29
Morale 4, F=4/10
X=6,16 Y=8,84
Morale 5, F=5/10
X=7,54 Y=7,56 |
8*you will not get morale on first turn
not true with my knight i ahd 3 morale ran up with griffins very first turn and it got morale ive lsot the link to the battle wa sin merc long long time ago |
for Torrim:
You do realize that your opponent’s units have a higher initiative and thus more opportunities to receive luck and that the archers even have double shot?
yeah and you realize each one of his elves got at least 1 luck and 1 of them got 2 in a single double shot sprites got it and even druids? |
torrim, your battle
You moved 11 times, got 3 morale boosts, which is the most probable number of them.
Elf had 34 chances for luck, got 8 lucks, when the most probable number of lucks is 7.
So the battle is completely fine and fair and, as was said, you should realize the difference between you and your opponent in number of chances to triger (initiative, double-shot). |
please look each creature number of turns cause every creature have a proper counter...and 3 luck on the same elves with 20% chance means
2 luck every 10 rounds
7 rounds and 1/2
i don't think he did this much |
2 luck every 10 rounds
Not rounds. Turns. Every creature has its own counter. So number of rounds doesnt matter, only number of turns of the creatures. |
thx, jrf good catch!
Happened by copying the formula replacing the 'move befallen so far' with X and Y things and forgetting to delete this bracket. |
shock2255:
8*you will not get morale on first turn
Are you writing about my post #8?
Why should you not be able to get morale on first turn???
Oo |
Not rounds. Turns. Every creature has its own counter. So number of rounds doesnt matter, only number of turns of the creatures.
that's what i mean. Btw here's the turn list of his creatures(letters from top to bottom):N=No luck Y=got luck
ElfA:N/N/N/Y/N/Y/N/N/Y=>3/9 lucks(33%)
ElfB:Y/N/N/N/N/N/N/N=>1/8 luck(13%)
ElfC:N/N/Y/N/N/N/N/N/Y/Y=>3/10 luck(30%)
DruidA:N/Y=>1/2 luck(50%)[Most of their turn were lightning]
DruidB:N/N=>0/2 luck(0%)
DruidC:N/N=>0/2 luck(0%)
Srpites:N/N/Y/N=>1/4 luck (25%)
we got lucky and we have 2 elves that got 9 and 10 turns...and they have both a rather greater % then they should.In fact elf A and B got 3 lucks out of 10(elfA out of 9!)I considered each shoot,retal and melee atk.And please note the Y/Y at the end of the elfC sequence.How can a system that doesn't respect in the long terms(we are talking about 10 or 9 attacks not 2 or 3 like druids)his own % be right? |
| sorry for doublepost in the first sentence after the data i mean "2 elves that did 9 and 10 ATTACKS" |
Morale 1, F=1/10
X=1,7 Y=13,3
Morale 2, F=2/10
X=3,21 Y=11,79
Morale 3, F=3/10
X=4,71 Y=10,29
Morale 4, F=4/10
X=6,16 Y=8,84
Morale 5, F=5/10
X=7,54 Y=7,56
dude you should really use decimal points, those commas had me baffled for ages |
for Torrim:
Random distribution doesn't mean that you always get 20% for all stacks, this only applies if you watch suffieciently many turns, but if you take just a small sample you can get any result with a certain probability and we even have a mechanism that prevents things straying to far from expectation. |
for Torrim:
Random distribution doesn't mean that you always get 20% for all stacks, this only applies if you watch suffieciently many turns, but if you take just a small sample you can get any result with a certain probability and we even have a mechanism that prevents things straying to far from expectation.
i think that 10 and 9 atks are quite enough:P
the point is:in both the cases with a decent numbers of atks the % is over the right valuse.This isn't ok |
| from what i can understand you want luck to be as predictive as the hit and miss on ghosts... i think it's better to keep luck as just that, luck. |
i think that 10 and 9 atks are quite enough:P
The number I had in mind were several hundreds.
the point is:in both the cases with a decent numbers of atks the % is over the right valuse.This isn't ok
As the system is now it is technically imposible to get less than the round down value of what you should get and it is very unlikely (less than 2%) to get more than one additional occurrence.
In addition it's the same system for everyone so nobody is at a disadvantage. |
As the system is now it is technically imposible to get less than the round down value of what you should get and it is very unlikely (less than 2%) to get more than one additional occurrence.
In addition it's the same system for everyone so nobody is at a disadvantage.
Nope guys like elves with tons of INI or attacks(double shot)got the advantage and ppl with slow troops thx to this system got even less bonus |
Nope guys like elves with tons of INI or attacks(double shot)got the advantage and ppl with slow troops thx to this system got even less bonus
Actually it's the opposite, for example if you have 2 luck and 5 turns it triggers in expectation 1.20 (24%) times, if you have 10 turns it triggers 2.22 (just 22.2%). |
yeah talking bout % but pratically is 2 luck instead of 1...and the only guy with 10 attk i seen had 3 lucks(30%)XD
P.s.:obviously i'm talking even about morale |
yeah talking bout % but pratically is 2 luck instead of 1...and the only guy with 10 attk i seen had 3 lucks(30%)XD
One of his elves had just one luck, but you conveniently ignored that and as I said before there is a certain variance and it’s supposed to be there.
obviously i'm talking even about morale
Morale and luck use the same formula. |
