| Author | I don't get hunter arts. |
|---|
Hi,
Since at least 50 hunts I didn't get any hunter art. Maybe it's bad luck, maybe a bug? I share nearly every hunt, maybe it has to do something with this and it's a new "feature"?
I just wanted to ask if there are other players experience the same. |
I have received my share of hunter arts :)
Not a bug really.
Just the Dark side of probability.. |
Same here.
But it is probability. For you drop rate is 7% which means there is 93% chance that you won't get any hunter art. Of course if you are lucky you can get 10 arts in 10 consecutive battles and if you are unlucky you may not get one in a 100 battles.
However, in the very long run it would even out according to law of large numbers.
Law suggests:
"In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events."
My suggestion would be not to worry about it much. You can create an analysis of drop rate as I do for mine.
My drop rate is 4 hunter arts in 125 hunts instead of 6 in 125. :) |
| Out of the 20k+ active players, probabilities state that a handful will get no loot in a great streak of fights (even more so that many of us are here for years so we're bound to face lootless streaks at some point), and that handful of lootless players will come here and ask why. The greater the amount of player, the more common it will be, or, rather, seem to be. |
| The chances of you not getting a hunter art for 50 hunts is about 2.6%. This is not incredibly low, so I don't think it's a bug, probably just bad luck. |
for MarineBiologist:
Nice explanation! |
My drop rate is 4 hunter arts in 125 hunts instead of 6 in 125. :)
Correction: My drop rate is 4 hunter arts in 125 hunts which is fine and is as it should be. My rate isn't busted. :)
HG 0 = 0.03*16 = 0.48
HG 1 = 0.04*44 = 1.76
HG 2 = 0.05*65 = 3.25
Rounding down and adding gives 4. I think next hunter art I will get will be after or near my 15th battle. :)
for Hiltrud:
It is very difficult to determine your drop rate if you aren't keeping a track from the beginning. In your case (and mine) it is even more difficult because of joint hunts. :)
for MarineBiologist:
Nice explanation!
:) |
| Thanks for the good explainations! I'm aware that it can be bad luck, but maybe someone heard of similar problems. I'll stay patient then. |
I will PM you after my 15th hunt or before it to verify if the rate is busted or not.
Although it would be good help if someone else if keeping a record of their hunt drops as well. If anyone is, please PM me your data. :)
I am somewhat certain that no one's rate can be busted. It may be off by a small margin but not completely busted. |
I'hv played approx 90-92 Hunts
And looted 3 Hunter Broadsword , 1 Hunter hat and 1 Hunter glove.
So, personally I don't think its an error or a bug nor I think your droprate is busted.) |
Hunters' guild: 5 (1012.62)
I get 14-15 arts: 3-4 from hunter set
11 from master hunter set
in MG: Mercenaries' guild: 3 (533) +67
I get around 15 elements in last 50 MG battles,
but get only 2 moonstones yet :( |
