| Author | Roulette Mathematics |
|---|
To expand on LLN,
the probability rise on a very small sample size say <5 is negligible but on a very large sample size say >1000, it is significant.
I'd refrain from commenting the standard sample size for roulette to make use of LLN since I don't know the answer and your guess is as good as mine. :) |
for randomr1:
this problem's been discussed on some other topic, either in Offtopic or Creative Works :D
The person who answered this problem (Marilyn vos Savant) received severe criticism when she solved it. Switching to other door seems so absurd but it actually increases your probability to win. |
Nothing is random. There is order in the chaos.
Jeez. To perceive randomness to be absolute otherwise non-existent is idiotic. There is a degree of randomness, such as there is a degree of stability/order. They are expressed relatively. Therefore we can never derive that one exists without another. |
-1
even if it gave free money, I would refuse it,
because it is deadly.period. |
In an ideal world maybe, but computers aren't perfect and neither are (pseudo)random number generators.
Yes that is absolutely true, however I assumed sofi meant the last 18 spins :) 18 spins is too small for something like this. However as Marine points out, it would work if we do it over thousands and thousand of spins :)
However, the big problem with that is that even though it should might work when dealing with such pseudo-randomness, it is impractical because then we would need data of 10k's of spins and need to bet for thousands of spins, however even though this will probably give you a better chance than 1/38, it won't give you a better chance than 1/36 and thus you are definitely going to lose.
for Ajith:
Lol what? -1 to what? Refuse what? Again, I am not suggesting anyone to bet at all, in fact quite the opposite. |
Lol what? -1 to what? Refuse what? Again, I am not suggesting anyone to bet at all, in fact quite the opposite.
He refuses to listen to your sanity and will bet all his gold on number 7!
Good work on the maths and stuff. :) |
for Meshy:
Thanks a lot :) Recently I have been studying a little bit of probability, combinatorics, etc. and I had some free time so I thought I will spend some time calculating roulette possibilities :)
I initially thought no matter what/how you bet the ratio of your chance to win to the amount of win always remains the same, but I was somewhat surprised to find out it's wrong, thus some bets give the house more than just a 5.26% advantage.
For example, this is an interesting, however relatively simpler problem regarding rolling of dice:
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/ChevalierDeMere.shtml
Blaise Pascal himself was involved in solving this very simple problem, it must have been interesting for him to think about way back in the 1700's.
It is interesting to note that there are two(or more) ways to calculating this, one is shown in the problem, and another one which I found independently is even faster and more efficient.
So for solution 1, you can simply calculate the probability by calculating the following: 1-(5/6)^4. Why does this work? Well what I did was to calculate the chance to lose and not to win, and then I subtracted the chance to lose from 1 to get the chance to win, in this case the chance to lose is (5/6)^4. |
for marine,
yes really, according to the mathematics.
can you prove that?Are we talking about likelihood or mathematically measured probability? it can be proved that even if e.g. 0 hasnt appeared for two days,the probability to appear next spin is still the same,equal to any other number,as if it had appeared 10 times in a row before.
wining roulette is not a matter of large numbers(players pocket has limits) and 100+ is definetely a very small one
There might be order to the chaos, but definitely there is no memory
for ParaLeul, a defective generator might give less probability to some numbers and more to others,so analyzing history might lead you to bet on those numbers with less probability and make things even worse.
considering history on independent events is a common gamblers delusion |
#25
i mean even the last 10 millions spins.what the law marine mentioned actually guaranties that the casino always wins.
take for example the coin
H for head,T for tail
and we have a sequence of THTTT
what has the bigest probability to come next?
Head and tail have the same probability because THTTTH and THTTTT have the same probability 1/2^6 |
for Lady sofiouta:
Yes I agree, as you said randomness does not have memory. Pseudo-randomness on the other hand is theoretically predictable however practically impossible to predict for us, thus as you say spin history should be very useless. |
http://www.guildofheroes.ru/players.php?levelst=1&levelfin=21&male=1&female=1&sort=29&napr=1&cla n_id=-1&submit=%EF%EE%E8
Please have a look at this link, just look at the profits these guys are making... I mean, do you think these guys are just "lucky" ?? ... This link makes me believe that Roulette in this game does not follow the same statistic/mathematic rules as Roulette IRL it is obvious, but also that there may be a way to say "Ok, considering the few last spins, beting on these numbers shall increase my chances to win"
I assume there is a lot more money lost by the players in the roulette that money won, "the casino always win", but I'm quite sure there's a way to increase your probability to win money in this game by playing specific combinations.
I guess the spins are generated by a computer which tries to imitates IRL randomness isn't it ? Thus can we talk about mathematics and statistics laws as we consider it in the "real life" anymore ?
What are your opinions ?
*----*
I hope my post is clear enough to be understood, i feel ashamed for the french education system when it comes to language learning. |
for Hammer Thrower:
Actually for roulette a random number generator is used. To make a good random number generator, you use a particular algorithm to maximize the randomness.
Although since no random number generator generates truly random numbers, there are set of observable patterns. People have found some of those patterns.
On ru forums it is common knowledge that roulette follows a mirror pattern i.e. if ball lands on number 13 then it will surely fall on 31 within next few spins and vice versa. That is why you will notice a sudden spike of bets on these numbers whenever either of them appeared.
This is also one of the reasons you should check roulette spin history.
There are many other patterns people have posted which I am not aware of. Unfortunately they are not in English.
To read more about roulette visit this thread:
http://www.heroeswm.ru/forum_messages.php?tid=2275272 |
On ru forums it is common knowledge that roulette follows a mirror pattern i.e. if ball lands on number 13 then it will surely fall on 31 within next few spins and vice versa.
Lol, interesting, just checked Spin History.
There is a time today in which the ball lands in 24, then 12, then 24 in less than an hour.
And then it lands on 11 twice in a row. |
There is a time today in which the ball lands in 24, then 12, then 24 in less than an hour.
And then it lands on 11 twice in a row.
but the 24-12-24 pattern is different from what MarineBiologist described |
O MY GAHD!!!
I just put 1K in 13 to try my Luck, since the ball just landed on 31, and got 36K for the Straight-Up, on first attempt!
Omg :/ Please ignore what I just said on Post 4#, lets pretend I didnt say that. |
for MarineBiologist: Oh wow, didn't know there are actual patterns that have been discovered for roulette. Has this been brought up on the .com forums before? This might actually make roulette interesting
Have these patterns been able to make consistent profits?
Can anyone that read Russian gives some tips from that thread? :p |
| for Ipsen: It's admin's way of tricking you, and eventually tricking the entire forum, to waste their money on roulette, and buy diamonds in the future. :p |
37# Well, maybe you are right and I should just chill/relax.
Fun fact is that on Spin History you only get to see the 'Income', and not the Losses/Money Lost. :P (Which are probably higher than the Income).
So yes I agree. |
for liuker:
There are many patterns.
for sareth:
Oh wow, didn't know there are actual patterns that have been discovered for roulette. Has this been brought up on the .com forums before?
If only we .commers could get past "Roulette is evil/Roulette drains gold/Roulette is not good for your char" comments on every roulette thread. :) |
I feel it is necessary to add that even though Mirror Pattern works but there is no 100% guarantee. I remember few months back I was analyzing number history somewhere ~2010 and it took many spins ~30 iirc to complete 13-31 pair.
So bet at your own risk :) |
