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| Author | Probability of dwarven bear's knock? |
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What is the Probability of dwarven bear's knock?
Description says
If it runs 7 tiles it is 100% a knock? | No, its not. Basicly, the calculation is the same as other triggered abilities such as blind, unruly, etc.
† Triggering abilities may trigger during any attack. The probability of triggering depends on HP of damager and target.
If DHP ≥ THP, then
Probability = 25% + 3% * (DHP/THP);
else
Probability = 25% - 3% * (THP/DHP)
where:
» DHP is the total remaining HP of the damaging stack;
» THP is the total remaining HP of the target stack;
» Trigger probability lays within the interval of [5%;75%];
» The moments to calculate the probability differ depending on the ability type.
I believe paw knock triggers taking hp before the attack.
The tiles covered thingy works like this.
Bear walks 2 tiles and attacks. That means it will try to trigger 2 times. It tried to trigger by the formula above, if it doesnt, it tries it again. If both fail, it wont trigger. If the bears covered 4 tiles, it will try to trigger 4 times, if all fail, it fails, if at least one succeeds, it triggers. This is why it triggers at 7 so often, cause it tries to trigger it 7 times. | so if it covers 7 tiles then probability is very high?
7 trials with about 75% (if full bears)? | Depends on the target stacks health and bears stack health. Say we have 50 bears attacking 20 unicorns. bears hp would be 1500, unicorn would be 1600.
25-3*(1600/1500) = around 22. So basicly 1/5 chance that it will proc if one tile. Lets see if my calculus is right.
probability of 7 tiles would be like this.
To make it easier, lets count the chance that it doesnt trigger at all. That chance would be, it 0.78 (1-0.22), chance that it wont trigger once, happent 7 times so its 0.78^7. That is around 0.18. That means chance of paw knock triggering at least once is 1-0.18 = 0.82 | | closed by RicHunter (2017-12-02 11:33:41) |
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