| Author | Thiefing as dwarf |
|---|
We have 9 factions in this game (17 if we count alt).
In last 100 ambushes I was playing as dwarf and I got dwarf as opponent 22 times.
Isn't it too often? Is it some way of nerfing dwarf? |
whats the point of this ranting ?
22/100 is too often ? dude that is observation bias. you only believe what you want to believe. in long run the chance is suppose to same for all faction.
I think only child and newbie that didn't know that it is forbidden to suggest about buff and nerf certain faction or unit.
Player banned by moderator Lord STB until 2017-12-02 15:38:10 // FR 2.2 / Please keep replies more polite. It would also be good if you start new sentences with a capital. |
Somehow its true for me aswell.
Very less, way less than 10% for caravans of barbarians, whilst caravan of necromancers and dwarfs most of the times. |
#krabylos
Do you have some problems with yourself or it is just a late time? |
| I am getting dwarves very often too. But they can be might, holy and chaos too, that'd why you can see them more often than any other faction. |
Do you have some problems with yourself or it is just a late time?
I think picking a fight is not wise dude.
I just elaborate my point, why attacking me as person? |
I just elaborate my point, why attacking me as person?
First you are writing someting about kids and newbies then you ask me why I asked you such question.
Nvm. Back to topic.
Stats on this 100 fight are: 22% dwarf, while it should be 5,88% if we count 17 faction and 11% if we count only 9.
I am sure stats on dwarf for more then 100 fights are simillar. I was playing really much TG recently on dwarf. If you want you can count it for my last 1000 ambushes. |
for krabylos:
Lol woot? xD Can you kindly explain how on earth an objective statistic like the one mentioned has "observation bias" when 1) He did not hand pick the sample and 2) in no way did his subjective feelings/emotions affect the simple count of 22/100? Don't tell me you used the term "observation bias" just because it sounds cool xD
for latawica:
I don't think I get too many dwarves. If the 9 factions are indeed evenly distributed in caravan occurrences then 22% is twice the expectation of 11%. But as Nowar said, I think it depends on possibly number of builds and not possible number of factions, in that case dwarf probably has the most number of builds. Barb on the other hand, is always might, so that might explain why they have low frequency of occurrences.
for krabylos:
And yes, you seem to have basic enough understanding of probability distributions to know that unlikely events are often just coincidences, but you need to know that they are not always just coincidences, hence the name "unlikely events." No offence though, just saying ;) |
I am getting dwarves very often too. But they can be might, holy and chaos too, that'd why you can see them more often than any other faction.
Same could be with dark elf or demon but I think it is not.
I haven't notice more dwarf as opponent when I played diferent faction than dwarf.
Like it was only in dwarf-dwarf configuration. Strange. |
for latawica:
Well DE and demon both have only 2 builds, chaos and might, whereas dwarf has 3.
Also I don't really think the distribution should depend on your own faction. I'm personally too lazy for this, but if you can check how many dwarves you got in your last 200 battles on this account, and how many dwarves someone else (who's not a dwarf) got in last 200 battles then we might have enough information to start comparing. |
Same could be with dark elf or demon but I think it is not.
Nope, dwarf can have 3 setups, DEs, demons etc. only 2. I don't say it should be 20% of ambushes, I only think in very long run dwarf is the most often enemy - slightly higher % than the rest.
And I think you were only unlucky in your last 100 battles. Sometimes it can happen even in 100 ambushes. In 1000 it can be different though.
It is similar to roulette, sometimes (should be very rare) can 1 nmber trigger in 100 spins even 8-10 times, why not? :) |
for randomr1:
you ambush 2 times, both you get DE caravan. then proceed to go forum like OMG what is this occurence, I get 100% DE caravan who kill me even when before I move.Is it some way of nerfing DE ?
what I am saying is, of course with 100 tries you can get 22 Dwarf caravan but the chance of dwarf caravan is not 22%. in the infinite number of tries (long run), the chance should be same for all caravan.
for latawica:
its not about you |
1-100 - 22 dwarf
101-200 - 21 dwarf
Total: in 200 - 41 dwarf |
I meant 43 :)
Don't make me to count in 300. I am going to sleep. |
for krabylos:
I understand what you are trying to say, but first of all there is no mention of nerfing anything in this topic, and secondly 2 DE ambushes is obviously an exaggeration, but 100 tries is more or less decent.
in the infinite number of tries (long run), the chance should be same for all caravan.
Yes that is exactly what we are talking about. I thought so too but now I think that maybe it's not so obvious. Perhaps the distribution is not spread evenly for factions, but instead for faction builds, which is what we are trying to discuss :) |
for latawica:
Ok that's pretty good, if the "true" expected number of occurrences is even about 36, you just cut the sample standard deviation by a factor of 6, so your data is quite legitimate now.
Can you count it for someone who's not a dwarf now? xD |
Ok I did a count on someone who is not a dwarf. It was 17/100 and 34/200.
I believe the margin is still too small to say dwarf appears more often against other dwarves. However I think it's safe to say that dwarf appears more often than just a 1/9 frequency. |
Sorry for so many consecutive posts.
I also checked how many barbarians that guy faced, and it was 10/200, and actually 11/204. Roughly one third of how many dwarves he faced.
I think this solidifies the conjecture that frequency depends on number of possible builds, as according to that barbs have only one build whereas dwarves have three, so they should appear three times more frequently.
I'm pretty surprised, I thought all factions appear with a 1/9 frequency. |
aren't thief factions depending on real thieves preparing ambushes?
That would easily explain why, since a higher amount of players use Dwarf, numbers are so different.. |
IF you want to check some stats use this guys log
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_info.php?id=45977
he has 34000 TG points - twice as many TG wins as I have had battles of all types put together.
If there is an uneven distribution -his will show it without fussing around with anything else. I am sure some people with skills better than mine could set up something to automate the counting of the record because I am certainly not going to count it. |
