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| Author | luck +3 |
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According to:
http://daily.heroeswm.ru/newscom.php?i=luck--morale
If I have +3 luck, so luck must be 100% on the 4th hit (if 1st three hits were without luck).
My Ironroot treefolk had 5 moves at the very end of the game without luck.
How is it possible? Is it the formula changed or what?
Here is a game:
https://www.lordswm.com/war.php?lt=-1&warid=882564213 | | i thought that 1 luck is like 10 % chance | The formula is the same, but if I understand correctly, they are talking about a different formula here, one that has limited use.
For luck=3, it says:
When luck=3, the method can't be used. You can only forecast the chances of luck for the first turns:
So, only for turn 1,2,3 and 4, not for later turns. You had luck in turn 3.
At the end of your battle, you had 3 times luck in a row before 5 times without luck; 3/8 is better than 3/10, which is the normal chance in the very long run. | | Hmm... I always thought the counter reset after your luck triggers.. | The article looks at simplifying the formula for each given luck value. This simplified approach has more or less validity depending upon the value of luck
When luck=3, the method can't be used. You can only forecast the chances of luck for the first turns:
Hence the article is not saying that with luck 3 you are guaranteed a luck chance every 4 turns with luck of 3, this is only true at the very start.
If you take a piece from earlier on in the articleThe only thing that can happen is if we have to move a piece to the left several squares more than there are on the board. It is a very rare case, but it happens after Luck/Morale appears several times in the row (for one stack). Basically, you can draw several more squares to the left and write:
And then apply it to this scenario. Since luck happened several times in a row, effectively you are moving to the left off of the normal grid, and so can take one step to the right more than 4 times and not get up to the guaranteed chance. | | I have also had battles in which i get luck almost every turn with 3 luck then the next game, no luck at all for the 10-15 turns. You can call it coincidence but i have noticed it many many times and I even have a very recent example of this. | Hmm... I always thought the counter reset after your luck triggers..
In that way PvP would be unfair and more random. If your troop get luck in first turn, then in the second turn would be again 10% chances |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
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