| Author | [2020.07.27] Day of Gambling |
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Astrologers proclaim the Day of Gambling! Only today:
You can bet double your maximum amount when playing roulette.
Entry fees are waived for all card tournaments.
An unlimited number of participants may participate in card tournaments. |
Already made 20k from card tournaments. Very nice bonus instead.
Stay away from roulette! |
for kchong:
I have always wondered how do people even win consistently in tavern to make profits? |
for Ser Jon Arryn:
Don’t know. Just avoid playing with people who have over millions in winnings.
Free card tournament day is nice too, but very small payouts |
There is more skill in the tavern game than most people realise. But you have to be very good to consistently beat the 5% rake + 50 gold/game for golden card to make yourself profitable over the long term. Some players have really mastered it and make millions out of the tavern.
Just knowing all the cards and the best combos/counters gives you an advantage over the average player
Thinking 3 or 4 moves ahead is essential
The best players track the discards, cards left in deck and opponent strategy to predict what the opponent has.
The very best know the cooldown mechanisms and when to expect cards again |
for Acean:
I have memorized all the cards and know combos too but still can't manage to keep profits |
The best players track the discards, cards left in deck and opponent strategy to predict what the opponent has.
The very best know the cooldown mechanisms and when to expect cards again
Damn, he knows the secret) Why did he not earn millions yet?! |
| I get it that if people knew then they would have earned millions but in general I need to know how much luck is the factor and how much your own expertise matters in long term |
| In my opinion as long as you are an average player. Skill is 5% and luck is 95%. |
for Ser Jon Arryn:
Easy enough.
If tavern were entirely random, average win rate would be 50/50.
I have 56% win rate. So I win 50% due to sheer luck. 6% of the time strategy lets me win a game I should have lost.
Now you take a better player, like this:
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_info.php?id=6912689
59% win rate. That should be about the best win rate you can hope for. Though some players also like to play low stake games so they have inflated win rate because they play with less skilled players. |
for Marquis Thornwald:
I can't believe this is just luck. That guy plays only tournaments and I feel with tournaments you need to be more lucky because you need to win at least 4 games in a row to get your money back. How is that possible? |
Damn, he knows the secret) Why did he not earn millions yet?!
I'm hovering around the 56% mark also, It's tough to overcome that 5%. One day I will muster the energy to actually do the maths and work out probabilities then i'll be in the big leagues.
I think I am technically profitable but I avoid the big stakes games. |
for Acean:
I have memorized the cards and combos. They help but still I can't go over 51 % win rate. |
I have 56% win rate. So I win 50% due to sheer luck. 6% of the time strategy lets me win a game I should have lost.
Quoting the winrate doesn't mean much, when there are as many roulette players who also win 56% of the time, all 56% due to sheer luck.
But I know there there is a component of skill here, because I'm a bad player, lose a lot due to mistakes, and my being bad implies someone being better, more skillful. |
for ProZyk:
My win rate is inflated by playing against newbies. If you have a 59% win rate in games with stakes I think you would be rich |
It's about statistical significance. It's mathematically impossible to beat the roulette wheel as iterations tend to infinity, RTP on roulette is 94.74%. The reason there are profitable roulette players is because of the high level of variance which allows for outlier outcomes.
In tavern most players play roughly the same stakes each time and variance is very low. If the win rate was truly luck based over a few thousand iterations you would expect it to be near exactly 50/50
In the case of Denladen and others in his league 59% win rate over 12,000 iterations has vanishingly low probability at 50/50 chance.
So low that it crashes my calculator and 3 of the online calculators i've tried to use. The best I could get was p < 0.00000001.
For my own numbers the calculator can just about cope
"The probability of exactly, or more than, 1274 (K) out of 2285 (n) is p = .00000002." |
I can't believe this is just luck. That guy plays only tournaments and I feel with tournaments you need to be more lucky because you need to win at least 4 games in a row to get your money back. How is that possible?
Oh, I would rather tell you that I'm winning half of the time thanks to skill. I do not think it is the case. For exemple even bots can win tournaments, yet they look like playing absolutely random cards.
In tournament, 2nd victory almost pays off, 3rd win is already a gain. Anything past that pays off dozen entry fees. Then the 1st wins are the easiest as the "bad" players tend to be out early.
I'm hovering around the 56% mark also, It's tough to overcome that 5%.
With 56% win rate, the net gain, excluding gold cards cost is slightly less than 10% of the bet amount per card game. I can see you are mostly playing free tournament days and low stakes though. |
for Ser Jon Arryn:
Take a look at the best card player.
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_info.php?id=4657523 |
for kchong:
Legends don't qualify for this conversation. Let us keep this discussion to mere mortals |
| I noticed they changed the rewards distribution for card tournament how does it works now? |
