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| Author | Thieving and Caravans |
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{8} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12677832 [F][C] - 27 (Won)
{8} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12888605 [F][C] - 28 (Won)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13104347 [F][C] - 43 (Won)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13303511 [F][C] - 53 (Lost)
also did you met any caravan with 4 stacks of succ with devils in the center? they are considered to be same type | {7} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12093022 - 5 Devils w/ 2 Subbs only (Lost) - 06-15-09 13:53 (22)
{7} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12098299 - 17 Hell Horses (Won)
{8} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12140351 - 8 Devils w/ 2 Subbs only (Lost) - 06-17-09 01:09 (15)
{8} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12677832 - 27 Hell Horses (Won)
{8} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12888605 - 28 Hell Horses (Won)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13104347 - 43 Hell Horses (Won)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13201947 - 13 Devils (Lost)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13268015 - 12 Devils (Won)
{9} https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=13303511 - 53 Hell Horses (Lost)
Well, these are all those I have found from my logs (not all, but checking them from latest to oldest), and it's pretty obvious that there's a significant jump once u level up, regardless of whether u won/lost the previous ambush of that particular type. | As you can see, I lost my last caravan with,
- 5 Devils at level 7, and the next time I get them again (at level 8), it jumped up to 8 Devils.
- 8 Devils at level 8, and the next time I get them again (at level 9), it jumped up to 13 Devils. Only when I lost this one, there was a minor decrease to 12 Devils.
I do believe that there is a significant preset increase in the numbers/difficulty of caravans once u level up, regardless if u have lost 10 or 100 ambushes of that type previously.
I would like to see some links by other players showing otherwise though. | (last on 8, lost) https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=8149466 (9 devils)
(first on 9) https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10088214 (10 devils)
That's my data and that disproves a preset increase. | fusei is correct. There is no reset to a certain point at each level up. Here, my friend Kascho has some impossible caravans after leveling:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?warid=481192263
But he had already won close to 600 ambushes, and me, only 250.
Whereas mine, at TG3, are definitely beatable in full art:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?warid=481310876
It is an increase of 20%-30% from where you were before leveling. | Hmm.. I was curious to know if it was true so I checked your logs while serving my 1-hour penalty and the results are pretty interesting and since u did a whole lot more ambushes than me, quite definitive as well.
{7} 01-31-09 12:14: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=7671563 - 29 Hell Horses (Lost)
{8} 02-08-09 19:46: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=7963651 - 37 Hell Horses (Lost)
{8} 02-11-09 21:22: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=8063385 - 9 Devils (Lost)
{8} 02-14-09 18:24: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=8149466 - 9 Devils (Lost)
{9} 04-15-09 16:32: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10088214 - 10 Devils (Lost) - Attack 18, Defense 9
{9} 04-17-09 17:59: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10154437 - 37 Hell Horses (Lost)
{9} 04-17-09 19:32: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10156776 - 10 Devils (Lost)
{9} 04-20-09 11:26: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10236801 - 38 Hell Horses (Lost)
{9} 04-22-09 19:19: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10310566 - 10 Devils (Lost)
{9} 05-10-09 11:12: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=10888138 - 10 Devils (Lost)
{9} 05-13-09 20:15: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11001766 - 9 Devils (Lost)
{9} 05-15-09 19:01: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11067788 - 38 Hell Horses (Won) - Attack 18, Defense 16
{9} 05-17-09 13:42: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11128457 - 11 Devils (Lost) - Attack 18, Defense 16
{9} 05-18-09 08:45: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11152665 - 10 Devils (Lost) - Attack 18, Defense 16
{10} 06-08-09 12:17: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11864026 - 12 Devils (Lost) - Attack 20, Defense 12
{10} 06-09-09 09:08: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11891227 - 13 Devils (Lost) - Attack 20, Defense 12
{10} 06-13-09 18:31: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12037651 - 12 Devils (Won) - Attack 21, Defense 12
{9} 06-14-09 08:08: https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12051390 - 52 Hell Horses (Lost) - Attack 21, Defense 13
From the results, I gather a few things:
Hell Horses (HH):
- Though u lost your 1 and only ambush with the HH at level 7, the jump was significant when you leveled up --> from 29 to 37 HH(!).
And at level 9, when you lost your 1st ambush with 37 HH, the next time you met them, it actually went up (?!). Then, on the 3rd time you met them at level 9, the number again didn't decrease, it stayed at 38. But this time you won, coz you wore better arts. So you probably would have won the first time if you had wore better arts too.
- After you won your last ambush at lvl 9 with 38 HH, the next time you met them at lvl 10, you got 52 of them (!)
Devils:
- The 1st time you met the Devils was at lvl 8, you had 8 Devils. You lost that, and the next time you met them again at that level, it didn't decrease. It stayed at 8 Devils.
- When the next time you met them, it was level 9, and you got 10 Devils, an increase of 25%, even though you lost your previous 2 meetings with them.
- And after losing your 1st meeting with 10 Devils at lvl 9, the numbers again didn't decrease, you again got 10 Devils the next time. And after losing that, it still didn't decrease, you got 10 Devils again for the 3rd meeting.
At lvl 9, you meet the Devils a total of 7 times (sequence of Devils: 10-10-10-10-9-11-10), and lost them all. So basically, you didn't reap the benefits of wearing min AP to 'lower' the difficulty of the caravans at all.
At lvl 10, after losing 7 consecutive times vs the Devils, you got 12 of them, an increase of 25%. And after losing that one, it actually went up to 13 Devils the next time you met them.
Lastly, in total, you met this type of caravans 18 times from lvl 7 to 10, you won 2 times - 1 each vs the HH and Devils. But t | fusei is correct. There is no reset to a certain point at each level up. Here, my friend Kascho has some impossible caravans after leveling:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?warid=481192263
But he had already won close to 600 ambushes, and me, only 250.
Whereas mine, at TG3, are definitely beatable in full art:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?warid=481310876
It is an increase of 20%-30% from where you were before leveling.
Hi Xerfer,
I looked at your links, and I don't get what you are trying to show us. heh.. :p
What we are discussing is if it's beneficial to wear min AP to bring down the number/difficulty of caravans till they become doable wearing min arts. Since I'm doing lots of TGs now, and after hearing some of the suggestions here, I was curious to see if I had taken the wrong path and try to get my TG up by wearing good arts. So i did some checking, and from the results, wearing min arts to try and bring down the numbers/difficulty really have no benefits - The numbers clearly didn't go down even after consecutive losses.
And even IF it does go down, it didn't show coz we would have leveled up to the next level before we can reap the benefits.
I wish I was wrong though, then I can save myself some precious gold by lowering the numbers of the caravans, and win reasonably high % of them wearing min art. Well, not gonna happen.. :/ | Soz, didn't know I exceeded the numbers of words allowed in post #26. :p
Lastly, in total, you met this type of caravans 18 times from lvl 7 to 10, you won 2 times - 1 each vs the HH and Devils. But.. both were not coz the numbers or difficulty decreased as a result of wearing min AP to bring down. In both case the numbers were the same as the previous one you lost, but,
- the win vs HH was coz u wore better arts,
- and the other vs Devils was coz u used a different tactic. | 27:
I'm trying to show that there is not reset of difficulty at level up. If this was true, then my caravans should be as difficult as Kascho's reguardless of the current number of ambush wins. This is clearly not the case, so the caravans in crease 20%-30% from your current levels- there is no generic reset. | the caravans in crease 20%-30% from your current levels- there is no generic reset.
Yep, I agree with you. I already said that in an earlier post (#9), m8. :)
I only had a few Swords extra for leveling up, but the caravans in general went up by around 30% (caravans goes up in numbers/difficulty by about 30% for each level, as told to me by a friend).
Thanks for confirming it though. :) | Well devils/hellhorses are a good caravan to show that there is no reset upon leveling up, but for seeing how caravans get easier I'd rather look at these:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12278255
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12275227
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12232458
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11941070
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11913000
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11893847
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11866314 | Hi fusei, I don't quite understand, can u kindly explain to me how the caravans got easier?
You didn't put the dates so I don't know which came first, but it's either from top down, or bottom up, I assume. So, we get this numbers -
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12278255 - 1x21DE 2x5VC 1x14V, 6x10G, 3x7A (L)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12275227 - 1x18L 3x10-11VC 5x6-7V, 2x7G, 2x15A (W)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=12232458 - 1x27L 3x7-8VC 3x7-8V, 5x13G, 1x13A (L)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11941070 - 1x25DE 5x4-5VC 1x5V, 2x6G, 3x5A (L)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11913000 - 1x17DE 6x8-9VC 1x9V, 3x8G, 2x7A (L)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11893847 - 1x38L 2x8-9VC 1x14V, 4x10G, 4x16A (L)
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=11866314 - 1x21DE 4x10V, 3x12G, 5x16A (L)
You lost your first fight vs 21 Death Envoys (DEs), and the next time you meet them, you got.. 25 DEs? After you lost the 2nd one, it went back to 21 Death Envoys. After you lost the 2nd one too, it went down to 17 DEs the 3rd time you met, which you also lost. But instead of going down from losing, you got 21 DEs the 4th time you met. So this clearly shows the numbers decreases by losing.
As for the Liches, it's the same story. You got 18 Liches the first time you met, which you won. Then it went up (maybe coz u won) to 27 Liches the next time you met, which you lost. On the 3rd time, instead of going down from losing, the Liches went up to 38.
Even if you take from bottom up, it still don't show the numbers decrease from losing, by looking at the numbers of Death Envoys you got.
At best, it shows the numbers are kidda random, win or lose.
Guess there is no concrete answers to this. So I guess I'll just have to continue with good arts so I don't waste my min arts on caravans that may not go down in difficulty even when I lose a few caravans. Sigh... | Sorry, it's from bottom to top, I thought the warids were showing this. Your concentrating too much on the central stack, but when you compare top and bottom you can see that the number of DE didn't cange, but the number of V/VC went down from 40 to 24 and the number of G/A went down from 116 to 81 and shifted from A to G.
Guess there is no concrete answers to this. So I guess I'll just have to continue with good arts so I don't waste my min arts on caravans that may not go down in difficulty even when I lose a few caravans. Sigh...
Well, I'm a top 50 thief and ranked 8th in my level and despite using min arts I still win caravans. | | It's from the bottom up (bigger warid number = later battle ) and it seems like the numbers are decreasing (only between 11913000 and 11941070 the DE's are more, but all the other units are lesser). | Yeah, guess there's 2 schools of thoughts. Won't argue with your stats. :)
But looking at the 25 examples of your ambushes here (Devils, Hell horses, Death Convoys and Liches, you won 3 and lost 22. The Devils/Hell Horses record are all you did from lvl 7 to 10, and that has a ratio of 2 wins outta 18 = 11.1%. If you add the Death Envoys and Liches examples you posted, you % went to 13.6% win ratio.
Now considering that you have won 618 ambushes, and I take it that you win 20% of your ambushes, that would mean you have roughly lost 2500 ambushes, which is = 2500 hours penalty. That's 104 days worth of penalty, roughly 3 monthly. That's a long time worth of penalty, in my opinion. And you add to that the cost spent on min arts to lose roughly 2500 ambushes, the amount can't be small.
I would rather spend a tad more gold and have a higher winning ratio and go the faster route for now. Maybe when I get to really high levels and the TG caravans can't be won even when wearing full arts will I probably consider taking this route.
Thanks anyway to all for sharing. It's very much appreciated. :) | for fusei:
Oh, and great job and well done on your TG stats, indeed very impressive. I wish I have stats like that when I get to your level. :D | But looking at the 25 examples of your ambushes here (Devils, Hell horses, Death Convoys and Liches, you won 3 and lost 22. The Devils/Hell Horses record are all you did from lvl 7 to 10, and that has a ratio of 2 wins outta 18 = 11.1%. If you add the Death Envoys and Liches examples you posted, you % went to 13.6% win ratio.
^-^ Well, considering the fact that I have ever since I started playing this game lost 1347 games, so asuming all these losses were ambushes (which is a vast exaggeration) my win ratio is 618/(618+1347) which is a bit more than 30%. | Oh, and just to share to those who are thinking of starting thieving, you may wanna consider that at lower levels, you can win most of your ambushes by wearing moderate arts (not full arts). This generally means a steel set and a defender shield.
here's an example of a friend of mine who started thieving at lvl 8, and got to TG2 with a 90% win ratio. You really don't need to wear min arts to decrease the difficulty at that lower levels.
https://www.lordswm.com/pl_warlog.php?id=4526072&page=2
You might wanna consider fusei's and others' suggestions to go the min arts route though when u find the going starting to get tough at higher levels. :) | Oh, and like myself, he's just a knight, not really known to be a good faction for thieving. heh.. :p
^-^ Well, considering the fact that I have ever since I started playing this game lost 1347 games, so asuming all these losses were ambushes (which is a vast exaggeration) my win ratio is 618/(618+1347) which is a bit more than 30%.
Yep, true. Higher % than I calculated. haha.. :) | #35
I'm a good example of the faster route. I was winning only a little over 50% of my fights with full arts. Last month I did 3 weeks of losing and I noticed only a slight drop in difficulty. So for this month I've switched back and forth from full and min arts depending whether I want to win or lose.
My TG stats is only slightly higher than fusei's, but I still see him losing many ambushes. So I don't consider his ambushes as "sustainable".
Why do I even bother losing? I just want to increase or prevent my full art winning ratio from decreasing. I've done a variety of things to increase my win ratio and I'm pretty much at my limit. So I'm doing this losing method. I've probably lost around 300 caravans in these 2 months.
I find your 2500 ambush calculation to 104 days penalty strange. You are assuming fusei is playing 24/7 and that there's no ambush wait time. |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
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