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| Author | Luck = 1 and 14 hits without befallen luck in a row :) |
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Instead of
(0.90*0.87*0.83*0.78*0.72)^5 = 0.0486
there should be
(0.90*0.87*0.83*0.78*0.72)^3 = 0.0486 | OK. One luck in 10 is average. 0 in 10 is pretty normal. 0 in 15 is pretty common too. I often use 4-5 luck with 5-10 unlucky hits in a row. Its just a matter of random toss
- then there is 0.5% chance that in all those 15 attacks luck won't befall.
Without any math, this seems like a too small chance when we are talking about repetition of event with 90%+/- probability. Considering the randomness of the luck parameter. If you played some pvp once in a while, you would see that having luck parameter +3 sometimes gives less luck than having +1. Its the human nature to observe, analyse and remember situations that are unlucky, frustrating or unfair.
PS: Volley cannot be lucky. | PS: Volley cannot be lucky.
Wrong. See a proof here:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=6859836
Without any math, this seems like a too small chance when we are talking about repetition of event with 90%+/- probability.
Did you read examples in 20th post?
I mean that 15 unlucky hits have very DIFFERENT probabilities, depending on the situation:
- 0.5% chance of no luck in 15 hits (situation: 1st stack hits 9 times, 2nd stack hits 2 times, 3rd stack hits 3 times, 4th stack hits 1 time)
- 4.86% chance of no luck in 15 hits (situation: 3 stacks, each hits 5 times)
- 11.6% chance of no luck in 15 hits (situation: 5 stacks, each hits 3 times)
- 20.6% chance of no luck in 15 hits (situation: 15 stacks, each hits once)
- 0% chance of no luck in 15 hits (situation: there is a stack, which hits more than 9 times)
Anyway, if you don't agree with me then you also don't agree with probabilities listed here
http://eng.witchhammer.ru/viewpage.php?page_id=37
because I've got exactly the same probabilities, which I've got from the formula here
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=35 | | ohhhh no maths !!!!!!!!! xD | In this battle Bowmen had NO luck on 9 targets in a row having Luck 2:
1st hit (4 targets at once with Volley)
2nd hit (3 targets at once with Volley)
3rd hit (1 target)
4th hit (1 target)
But from this table
http://eng.witchhammer.ru/viewpage.php?page_id=37
you can see that 5th hit would be lucky (100% probability).
So, again, my Bowmen was as unlucky as they could :)
But the probability that Bowmen misses 4 times in a row having Luck 2 is about 10%:
(1-0.2)*(1-0.2991)*(1-0.4472)*(1-0.6687) = 0.10269
(i.e. such bad luck happens once per 10 battles on average - it's not very rare event)
By the way, this example proves that the "case 1" (described in #11) isn't true.
It means that Luck/Morale works as described in the "case 2", i.e. hitting multiple targets doesn't count as several hits.
In this battle
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=6859836
all 3 targets took double damage.
I think it means that Volley with befallen luck always does double damage to all targets (i.e. this is different mechanic than in Sprites case, which can do double damage to not all targets). | I mean
In this battle Bowmen had NO luck on 9 targets in a row having Luck 2:
https://www.lordswm.com/warlog.php?lt=-1&warid=23946863 | u guys sure kno ur maths i dnt even kno what ur saying:/
for me like this 1 lukc =15%
2 luck = 30%
3 luck = 45%
other than that i have no idea. |
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