| Author | Luck and Morale trigger |
|---|
Hi - been playing this game for a while now but never seen this.
My character has one luck and I had a bsttle where I went through 15 rounds (the entire battle) without a single luck trigger and only one morale trigger.
What are the chances of that happening? |
Since it is out of 100%, 1 luck is just 10% chance of it happening, if you add another point it's 20%...
So each point is just another 10% bonus of it happening |
| by theory. it is actually 0.9^15 = 0.206 which is around 20 percent that ur luck doesnt trigger at all for 15 rounds :) |
@Tattersail: 15 rounds is quite an uncertain description. 15 rounds of what?
@measure: Since the calculation doesn't work that way, your result is wrong.
For propability calculation of luck&morale see here:
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=35 |
| Oh woops. i tot the probability was as filowarrior stated. in that case. the new probability is around 10 percent.. Still not a bad figure.. |
Just so you know for 1 luck (same for morale 1)
#turns no luck / probability to get luck
0 / 10,00%
1 / 12,92%
2 / 16,68%
3 / 21,54%
4 / 27,83%
5 / 35,94%
6 / 46,42%
7 / 59,95%
8 / 77,43%
9 / 100,00%
As you can see, after the ninth time of no luck you are guaranteed to get luck in your tenth strike. (Each of your stacks has its own counter)
So 15 turns (concerning luck, the term strikes would be better) for a unit without luck is not possible.
Although it is highly likely to get luck even before the ninth strike, because of the sum of chances you accumulate.
(I let measure do this calculation :P) |
I had a bsttle where I went through 15 rounds (the entire battle) without a single luck trigger and only one morale trigger
I'm always skeptical when people make these claims. Can you show us that battle? |
for Geryon:
that's not the point ...
for Tattersail:
Take each stack idependently, calculate the probability for every stack's attack with this :
F^(1+[moves befallen so far]-[moves not befallen so far]*F/(1-F)), whence F is Min(0.5;luck/10)
and then multiply all the probabilities you got together for all stacks.
It should be pretty low, but hey, that's luck we're talking about ;) |
| For Hallion: I think it's you who's completely missing the point. |
| Heh, OK then, back to out MAIN topic. Show us the battle Tattersail !! We'll see through its code and solve your query in no time !! |
