| Author | Trading - topic for discussion about market trends |
|---|
Market changes with time and here we can discuss about it to help us (traders) do our job better.
Please do not post trade offers here.
I start the discussion with element prices. What do you think about them?
I noticed that in last month some elements got much cheaper (Fern Flower, Windflower, Tigers Claw, Viper Venom). Some players buy them on market to resell but will the price go up again to old average? |
| Players need fast cash for their dwarf castles. After those are built, prices will go up again... |
I noticed that in last month some elements got much cheaper (Fern Flower, Windflower, Tigers Claw, Viper Venom). Some players buy them on market to resell but will the price go up again to old average?
check here:
https://www.lordswm.com/forum_messages.php?tid=1916546 |
for cakur:
Thanks, that explains matter of elements a bit. But nobody knows when servers may join so maybe this price drop is overreacting? Maybe stoter is right and it is also about 'run' on cash to build dwarf castles? |
| I sold most of my elements at our higher .com prices and plan to rebuy after merger as prices on .ru are generally cheaper. Looking at the market I am not the only one. |
Thanks DEATHisNEAR.
I wonder about Moonstones. I checked that there price is 6k and here 5k. I wonder why nobody wants to lift the price here to 6k? Buying at 5k to resell with 1k profit could be nice deal.
So is there a 'catch'? |
for cakur:
Thanks, that explains matter of elements a bit. But nobody knows when servers may join so maybe this price drop is overreacting? Maybe stoter is right and it is also about 'run' on cash to build dwarf castles?
price is depend on supply and demand.
no war event ----> less enchanted weapon needed ----> less element needed ----> element price drops |
for cakur:
On .ru they have lots of events and wars too and many element prices are lower than here. So no events -> lower element prices is not enough relation in my opinion. Maybne below reasons count altogether:
>> New powerful arts to enchant: Yes (price up) <-> No (price slipping down)
>> Filling facilities with gold (better enroll wage): Yes (price up) <-> No (price slipping down or stable)
>> Price arbitrage with .ru: price up or down depending on price difference
>> (Other reasons ?) |
for cakur:
On .ru they have lots of events and wars too and many element prices are lower than here. So no events -> lower element prices is not enough relation in my opinion. Maybne below reasons count altogether:
not fair to compare price here and there now. the question is, do their price decrease like here (compared last year for example) ? |
for cakur: That is for me hard to say as I observe their market only in the last few weeks.
I saw some players collecting moonstone but trying not to push the price over 5k. If something is below 5k it is quickly bought but most 'collectors' dont go beyond price 5050.
The violatility is very low. Basing on technical analysis and fundamental background of the merge, I would say that we should see a breakthrough in price. Psychological barrier is on 5,5k and then on circa 6k (very strong). |
| everything will change when the server merge happens. so it's pointless to change anything now |
for kibora:
Good traders are making plans of future events so they know what to expect and do.
Trader can wait for change on market or make the change by himself if he/she sees that the change would last for long enough and the cheaply bought stock could be resold at higher lvls. |
for traders a merge would be bad, because here you can easily gain a good amount of profit if an art runs out of stock or there are non on the market.
On .ru that rarily happens. |
for Sven91:
That is true too.
Lower amount of players and traders means that it is possible to get decent profit every day from observing the market and buying arts and elements that were placed with bargain prices.
If there is 10 times more players and 10 times more traders, it is much harder to make profit as each bargain offfer is taken off the market much faster, before you can reach it. |
price is depend on supply and demand
Absolutely not very applicable here. If left to "supply and demand", prices would be a lot lower. They are kept artificially high here because of traders, something that doesn't happen in the real world; you don't see, for example, one butcher buying all the cheap meat around town so that he can keep the price high.
For now, the traders appear to keep a fairly low profile. One reason could be, as someone noted, the market is awash with elements from people who need quick cash, and the traders can't keep up (too much for them to snatch all up). But I think the main reason may be that, again as someone else noted, that the traders are wary of the merger. If they snatch up the elements now at what are seemingly lower-than-normal prices, they might choke on their hoards later when the merger happens. |
interesting topic, thanks for all the insights people! :)
will read it more thorougly when i have more time, but a quick question about the normal arts on the market: as i understand, making profit with arts is more difficult on .ru than on .com. but at which price are they sold then, on average? at the normal buying price (to get high-wage enrolls), below buying price, waaaay below buying price? (that last one would seem stupid btw lol) |
for stoter:
We cannot discuss too much about .ru as it has to fit general game forum of .com so mainly about market situation on .com. For more detailed information about .ru please go to offgame forum, there is .ru thread :)
I will answer you in few words from my experience - I saw shop arts there traded slightly below market price to get better enrolls as you wrote.
for Geryon:
I think that some traders already got choked by too many elements. Prices go down for long time and those who tried to sustain price to get out without loss often got into bigger trouble.
I had myself problem with abbrasives bought for 400 gold when it was traded from 400 to 500. I had to sell it away for 300-350 gold later. Now it is traded even lower at 250-270.
At start I thought that cheaper elements are safer to buy because there is higher chance of price to go up but that is actually not true. Supply and demand within a trend is what matters. Also making 500 gold on 1 Moonstone is more convenient than buying and selling 10 Witch bloom with 50 gold profit on each.
Now traders can think that prices here will match those on .ru and that is strong market mover.
I hope that there are also other interesting subject for discussion, not only elements. Of course it would be nice to read an opinion that will show element prices from totally different perspective :) |
Absolutely not very applicable here. If left to "supply and demand", prices would be a lot lower. They are kept artificially high here because of traders
Some of those traders will likely soon get their fingers burnt.
For example, Beastbane bows which I have been watching recently have been selling on the market for around 39k. "traders" are very quickly buying them from anything between this price and 50k and then instantly re-listing them at ~70k+
They are ofc not selling at such high prices so the "traders" are between them collecting quite a stock.
When the merge comes they will find that the .ru price for a 15/15 BB bow is around 14.5k so an instant loss for them of at least 15 - 35k ;) per art.
Add on all the other MH, GH & BB arts and some people who have been artificially driving prices up are going to seriously suffer for it.
I would expect that over the coming weeks most of us will see these art prices falling rapidly as they try to make as little loss as possible and flood the market.
I WAS looking to buy a BB bow myself for 40k but have now pretty much decided not to bother but instead will wait for merge which I expect will happen fairly soon. |
for DEATHisNEAR:
Trading is a difficult thing, indeed. Often the higher the profit - the bigger the risk.
Same is with TGI. You can buy it now for let's say 1,050k and resell for 1,100k making 40k profit. But if you get suprised with the merge and TGI in stock, you will get on .ru 560k gold for it, making almost 500k loss. For me it is too big gamble. Better to focus on safer but less profitable areas of market. |
| #19 :: I totally agree. Specially as the demand for those high-risk items tails off as the merger nears. |
