| Author | Merging hunts |
|---|
Does anyone knows what is the possibility to make join hunts?
If I and my friends (+/- 1 lvl) are at the same spot and we all agree to start hunts with arts at exact time what will be to have 2Pv2AI hunt?
I like numbers so if someone could give me more info, the best knows developers about this. |
| I think the chance to get a joint hunt is 5%. |
for both 5%
so the chance that you and your friend fight together is 1/400 :P |
Yes but what would be a chance if 10 of us will start a hunt in exact time? Will it be still only 5% chance?
or 1.05^10 = 62% to get join fight by someone in party? |
| 62% Oh man how did you get that number? |
Ok yes made mistake:
95% there is chance that wont be a merging hunt. So if 10 ppl in same time start hunt then chance to be all single hunts are:
0.95^10= 0.598736939= 59.87%
so to have at least 1 merged hunt must be 100-59.87 = 40.13%
but i`m not sure about his either because there are 2 ppl who will join together so probably should be:
0.95^(10/2)=0.773780938 = 77.37% (not having merge fight)
22.62% will have |
for both 5%
Are you sure, that both monster groups need to trigger "..take to their heels"? (I suppose it's 5% chance for that to happen). I thought I already got joined in a hunt without seeing "take to heels" for my monster. I could be wrong though |
Well unfortunately my probability is rusty and I don't have my text book close by, but you're method is wrong. The probability that exactly 2 of your 10 friends get a "take to the heels" hunt is 0.05^2 * 0.95^8 = 0.00166 or 0.16%
Now you are probably looking at what is the probability that at least 2 of your 10 friends get a "take to the heels" hunt. This is where I'm sure there must be a shorter way of doing this but I can't remember. Anyways here is how you can do it:
0.05^2 * 0.95^8 + 0.05^3 * 0.95^7 + 0.05^4 * 0.95^6 + 0.05^5 * 0.95^5 +
0.05^6 * 0.95^4 + 0.05^7 * 0.95^3 + 0.05^8 * 0.95^2 + 0.05^9 * 0.95^1 + 0.05^10 = ?
Now the highest value you will be adding is the number I calculated earlier, so since you're only adding 9, the value cannot be higher than 1.44% (and I would guess is less than 1%). In conclusion, even with 10 people the chances are very slim. |
| i do get the message where the creatures "take to their heels" quite a few times but i've never get into a co-hunt before. How is that? I thought that if you get that message means you're getting into a co-hunt. or did i assume wrongly?? |
Two people need to get that message at roughly the same time to get a co-hunt.
8
I'm not too sure on my method now, but I get 0.18% from that big summation. |
to 10:
Check the #7 msg
Are you sure, that both monster groups need to trigger "..take to their heels"? (I suppose it's 5% chance for that to happen). I thought I already got joined in a hunt without seeing "take to heels" for my monster. I could be wrong though
and I think i also joined one without seen this picture...
actually we could do a test ... what you say? |
| I really think you need at least 2 people to have the take to the heels message. Perhaps that time you didn't think you saw it, it popped up quickly instead of waiting a while like it normally does. |
to eektor
I dont think your calculation s correct... if i alone have 5% chance to get merged hunt then 10 people together should have more than 5% chance to get merged hunt. |
I figured out what I did wrong. Basically this is the calculation you need to do:
1 - 0.95^10 - 10*(0.95^9 * 0.05^1)= 8.61%
Basically I did not take in consideration that there are multiple combinations of each possibility. Your way of subtracting from 1 was a great way to shorten the calculation too! |
| - 10*(0.95^9 * 0.05^1) - what is this stands for? |
| That is the probability that 1 person gets the take to the heels message. |
| just google 4 binomial distribution |
if 2 friends want to get in a merged hunt,
then each of them has a chance of 1/20 to get in a combined hunt
So to get together in the same hunt is (1/20)^2 = 1/400
If there are 10 people, then you have
9*(1/20)^2+8*(1/20)^2+7*(1/20)^2+6*(1/20)^2+5*(1/20)^2+4*(1/20)^2+3*(1/20)^2+2*(1/20)^2+1*(1/20 )^2
= 45*(1/20)^2
= 45/400
= 11,25% that two of those ten people get a combined hunt |
p=0.05
q=0.95
N=10
0<=x<=10 number of "heels"^^
P(2 exectly)=(10!/(8!*2!))*p^2*q^8
P(x>1)=1-P(x=1or 0)= 1-(10!/(9!*1!)*p^1*q^9+1*p^0*q^10) |
Guys, you have it all wrong. The chance is 50% - you either have a merged hunt, or you don't have it XDDD
Oh I just had to write this ^^ |
