Forums-->Queries and help-->
1|2|3|4
| Author | Merging hunts |
|---|
No, practical math tells you that your logical math is flawed, simply because you need to be two for a merged hunt.
Let me give you the detailed (and completely unlogical) description of what I mean.
Persons A and B are camped in a place where no others are camping.
Person A has 5% chance to recieve a merged hunt.
Person B waits for A to get a TttH, and then hunts.
Person A strikes those 5%, and B in this case automaticly is tossed into the merged hunt.
Person A then hunts 19 times.
Person B doesn't hunt at all, right now.
Then, Person A informs B that it's time to start.
The next time Person A gets a TttH, he/she informs B to hunt, and B hunts as well.
Now, theoreticly A should be "up for" another merged hunt.
B shouldn't be up for a merged hunt, but would be tossed into one if A strikes those 5% again.
This means, that in theory, one person (B in this case) could have almost all hunts as merged hunts. | #41:
Let me see if I understood correctly. You said if the time is for A to be flagged, but not for B, then B is forced into a combined hunt. Is that your message? Well, if yes, than it's not correct because A will enter the hunt alone even if A waits for 15 seconds to enter a combined hunt (in this case, the game fails to find another hunter to be flagged and allows the flagged player to enter alone). It happened to me so many times. | Now, let me see if I understood you correctly. You say there are flags?
I have to ask you where you get these flags from. I haven't seen anything about any flags anywhere.
There is, as far as I know, only TttH.
Also, I'm pretty certain that the game doesn't look for two people to have TttH.
That you have creatures flee from you isn't automaticly something that "flags" anything. They just flee because they are weaker. When they do so, there is a 5% chance that they will team up with another hunt that is attacked by another lord. No flags involved.
It has happened to me more times. (That last phrase of yours is totally redundant.) | I counted something before and I must say, that if it was that 2 players must get Ttth(or flag, whatever we call it), the probability would be lower than practice shows.
I think that it is that just one player get Ttth and then it waits for lets say 15 seconds for any player just starting hunt and join him automatically.
I mean are you sure CGSMCMLXXV that 2 flags are required? | That you have creatures flee from you isn't automaticly something that "flags" anything. They just flee because they are weaker. When they do so, there is a 5% chance that they will team up with another hunt that is attacked by another lord. No flags involved.
I don't think that this is the case. I saw already a few times red questionsmarks feeling, while the white onces seems nearly to flee. | First of all, by flag I didn't mean something visual, but a software term which specifies that a certain variable/member/class and so on has a certain value. E.g., a certain process can have different flags in different moments (inactive, active, zombie and so on; just look at the table of processes from your operating system). Those "flags" dictate how that specific process (in this case) to be handled. I didn't mean by flag something like a country flag.
Secondly, how do you define weaker here? In HOMM, "weak" was defined as those creatures not being able to do a minimum threshold damage. If you tell me that 410 bandits are "afraid" of an Elf level 7 (when the maximum from the "Top Hunters" is 412), then, please, define what you understand by weak.
Thank you for correcting my English. I am looking forward to being corrected. It helps me to improve my English. (sincerely, not ironic) | #44:
Yes. Otherwise you wouldn't enter the hunt alone if only you are flagged. | I don't think that this is the case. I saw already a few times red questionsmarks feeling, while the white onces seems nearly to flee.
This is another theory I've had. I can't be sure if I have seen any red exclamation-mark flee, but since you have, I'll take your word for that.
Onward to my theory then. Which is about the colors of the hunt.
Now, I haven't clocked anything, or even looked at it with much interest, it's just a feeling I have. However, it *feels* as if the easier hunts can flee for longer, and the harder hunts flee for less time.
It feels this way because I've been tossed into a fleeing hunt after just a few seconds a bunch of times. (Which I faced alone, in case you wondered...)
As I said, this is just a feeling. I have no ground for this theory. | for jrf:
The probability depends on the maximum number of hunts in the same time window. If you take region distribution of the players and the fact that you enter only with your combat level +/- 1 combat level (this is what I noticed by now, but I might be wrong), than the probability is much lower. So, what I gave you here is that every 3-4 minutes (taking into account that there are 1300 online players of combat level 4+) the game can find maximum 1 combined hunt. This interval of time is actually increased by the constraints I didn't take into account. | I know what you meant by flag. I am familiar with software-terms as well. And I must take back one thing concerning my previous statement.
Of course there are flags involved. Without them there would be no merged hunts at all.
However, I think you meant another form of flag. One that limits the amount of merged hunts you can have in a row, much like the ghosts ability to be missed.
(For reference that two merged hunts can happen in a row, check page 6 of my combat-log.)
"How do I define weaker"? Well, I have no idea. Arghmage has seen red exclamation-marks flee, so that can't be the case. So there are more factors involved. The possibilities for how the game calculates "weaker" are many. So far that is the only information we have from administration though.
"From now on there is a poor likelihood of neutrals to flee until they catch up with another group of neutrals being under attack by a different Lord."
That phrase doesn't even say anything about weaker, so my statement about that could (most likely is) be wrong.
So, they just flee because there is a poor chance of any neutral fleeing.
As for flags, I can only theorize that any hunt is flagged as "available for merge" once TttH has occured.
There are a couple of ways this could look in code, so I won't come up with any theory about it.
Also, I'm not actually trying to argue against you because I think you're wrong. I just like the discussion, and hope that you aren't blind to other possibilities than your first reaction. :)
Now, I could go on all day with this, but my girlfriend is haunting me to go to bed, so I have to bid a hasty farewell here. | for Agelage:
Errare humanum est! And I think I am human (or maybe just an animal trying to become human :D).
Yes, I am open to any discussion about what I wrote. That's why I wrote down my point of view of how to think the given problem. And that's why I asked people to give me a feedback for that point of view.
For example, I made a mistake when I said 1 combined hunt every 3-4 minutes because I said the probability is 7% which means 7 combined hunts every 3-4 minutes. But, actually, the number is lower due to the approximations I made.
Anyway, if you have 8 friends of the same level (just to be sure you get combined), you all can try my theory. :) Meaning, from 100 attempts to be merged, the game will allow maximum 7 times for your little party to get at least a combined hunt (doesn't matter which of you and, with much lower probability, but not impossible, it can happen to have 2 combined hunts in the same time). | Lets look at this, from announcements page:
"From now on there is a poor likelihood of neutrals to flee until they catch up with another group of neutrals being under attack by a different Lord."
I think it says, that first player has some probability to get flag, but the second one is joined just by condition he is starting hunt in the 15 seconds wide time window. That moves probability of merged hunt to expectable values. But I am lazy to calculate it exactly :-) | #52:
then, the probability of 5% is not valid, which means that the combined hunt is totally random. pretty unlikely. | #53
"then, the probability of 5% is not valid"
Why? If you start the hunt, you have 5% probability, that your enemy will flee. That's what it is for, in 1 in 20 hunts you get "taking to heels" message. Let's assign p as a probability that another player in the same location starts hunt in interval [0,15] seconds after the start of your hunt.
Then the probability of you getting a merged hunt is
0.05*p
That's what I mean. | #54:
If the flag is set on your hunts and not your character, you should move in my location because at level 7 and now at level 8 I got very few combined hunts due to ttth and never "picked" for a combined hunt. :) (joking)
The problem with your theory is that my gf and I were (for a short period of time we were level 7 together) in the same location and it happened for me to press attack, to wait for that time window, her to press attack and me to enter alone (she just had few hunts before that with the ttth flag on). Maybe it was a coincidence.
Another example: consider the Yellow Lake region. There is the highest density of players. You shouldn't be able to hunt there alone because you are "picked" for a combined hunt. Still, I haven't heard anyone (maybe I missed that) to complain about having only combined hunts. How do you explain that?
Don't get me wrong, maybe your scenario is the real one. But then my questions remain unanswered. Anyway, in your case, p is given only by the hunting frequency (those max 8 hunts in the whole Empire and so on). But this theory can be easily checked by two players moving to the Misty Coast where there is no one the most of the time. I am really curios about that. | I am really curios about that.
I am too, but sadly I'm to lazy to do the actual testing. :( | | I will tested but during the weekend. I will post the story as soon as i have the result. :) | | Sorry for my English in my previous post, but I am pretty tired at this hour. :) | Wow, this thread isn't dead :)
for CGSMCMLXXV:
My opinion would be to use a convolution between the binomial and hypergeometric distributions
Convolution is used when you have two (or more) independent random variables, say X and Y.
Then the distribution of the sum X+Y is called convolution of X distribution and Y distribution (I mean convolution of densities (in continuous case) or convolution of probability functions (in discrete case)).
So, please explain what do you mean by X and Y? Are they really independent? And what is the meaning of X+Y?
The first number is coming considering the computing the maximum number of starting hunts with "ready to merge" flag in the time window of 15 seconds from 1500 players online and the second is coming from the probability for at least 2 of you (9 friends) to be flagged as "ready to merge" in the same time (minimum number of other starting hunts with the "ready to merge" being considered 0).
Do you mean X by [the number of starting hunts with "ready to merge" flag in the time window of 15 seconds from 1500 players online]?
Do you mean Y by [the number of flagged friends (from 9)]?
If so, then what do you mean by X+Y? | Too much math and so many Mathematicians. In simple words, every person has 5% chances to get joined hunt, so, if 2 people start hunt at the same time, then there are 5% of 5% chances, that means 1% chance for them to get the hunt joined.
But every extra person starting hunt at the same time will increase the chance of any instance of joined hunt, and will decrease the chance of joined hunt of 2 specific people. |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
1|2|3|4Back to topics list
|
