| Author | About ghost/app miss probability |
|---|
| I understand it is 50% miss and you can not have 3 miss or 3 hit in a row. But in reality, I found it is almost for sure miss probabilty > 50% and according to my stats, it is 57%(+) vs 43% in more than 200 hits I played. And most of time, the more powerful my hit is, the better chance I miss |
You are wrong. No conspiracy theory here.
50% miss and you can not have 3 miss or 3 hit in a row: that's not all. Remember that if you use a magic attack, ghosts hit count is reset. |
| if a necro raises his ghosts the the counter is restet then also becuase raising dead is a magic |
actually raising does NOT reset the counter, as well as delay, disruption ray...
only elemental dmg from spells resets.
1: You did not count the "auto" hits and misses in your calculation? |
| I talked about ghosts in hunt or quests, and obviously I know magic attack will reset the prob. I am not sure people notice this issue as well, I suggest you count your prob as well, I am not talking about conspiracy theory, but guess the random number is not that random |
| No random number generator is truly random, but it's random enough to say that probability to hit/miss is equal, and it most certanly does not depend on dmg dealt. |
| it is just my guess and it looks like app has higher prob to miss than ghost |
bah, it only depends on how lucky you get
if you miss 2 times in a row , 3rd time will be a hit 100% & if you hit 2 times in a row 3rd time is a miss 100% ...
believe it or not this game is 90% about luck & 10% about tactics >< |
believe it or not this game is 90% about luck & 10% about tactics ><
lol |
Does the ghost counter also reset after the ghost stack has its turn? That was always my interpretation.
I susepct some of the time when I have lost against necros it was because I had long run out of spells and I missed the ghosts 4 or 5 times in a row, and that was because of a mix of bad luck and the counter reset each time the ghost had its turn.
Cheers |
believe it or not this game is 90% about luck & 10% about tactics ><
Assuming that is so, winning that strategic 10% of the battle can very easily be the difference between winning and losing.
In all honestly I have both won and lost battles because of luck, but that is not usually the case.
And as luck comes in several forms I have also lost battles because I kept on missing those damn ghosts. Ghosts would have to be the most frustrating unit in the game (in my opinion)
Cheers |
Well, I am not sure about this. Honestly, I have missed a ghost 3 times in a row. Believe it or not. If you want the evidence, I can dig into my combat log to look for you.
Honestly, I agree with Nebiros92. |
Incorporeal is just a lucky ability like luck and morale.I had 5 morale and my opponent 3 yet he had more bursts.
No conspiracy theory here. Kotrin is right it's just bad luck.
ButGhosts would have to be the most frustrating unit in the game is right -.- |
bah , if youre lucky enough to trigger Luck once @ the perfect time , you increase your chances of winning dramaticly , same thing for Morale...
you can't say " thats not true " -.-" |
| doesnt mean its90% about luck & 10% about tactics |
Honestly, I have missed a ghost 3 times in a row. Believe it or not. If you want the evidence, I can dig into my combat log to look for you.
Three misses in a _row_
If it's something like miss-miss-magic hit-miss it doesn't quolify. And it would have to be 3 misses in a roow on one stack, obviously.
I'd like to take a look on that. |
Honestly, I have missed a ghost 3 times in a row. Believe it or not. If you want the evidence, I can dig into my combat log to look for you.
dig pls....
you forget about computer AI, so maybe it JUST might be those ghosts attacked your troops and took retal with small dmg hit... happened to me lots of times...
IMPOSSIBLE TO DO 3 misses. Just impossible and that's it.
I know, I done a lot of fights as necro. |
The problem is that there is a soft cap on the random number generation. A guaranteed hit and guaranteed miss really destroys the probability on a given subsequent set of test.
Assume that the random number generator has in his sequence 6 hits in a row or vice versa 6 misses in a row, but the cap simply intervenes the random series and converts it from "HHHHHH" to "HHMHHM" or better to say "HHMHHMHH" (still 6 hits in a row but expanded to 8 attacks)
So in order to talk about ratios probably 200 is simply not enough to prove that it is not 50%. |
| so I want more people to do the statistics, but 200 is pretty large number, and probably is 53 vs 47 is fine, but 57 vs 43 seems higher. Anyone else do the stats? |
the hit counter maybe slightly less due to the simple fact that ghost stacks are dying in the hit counter.
eg a stack has the following hit-miss randomly generated : M M H M H H which is a 50-50 distribution, but the stack gets killed in the 5th turn. Now this will give a false impression that the counter is 3 miss: 2 hit.
over the long run this may lead to minor shift in the 50-50 counter slightly in favour of miss than hit. |
