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| Author | Roulete corp. will be bancrupt |
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And martingale for the 124th time. Yes, and you can win 500 gold or lose 70 000 in one night. Your pick :-) | | Roulette is damn bad thing, dont play it people. There is no winner in roullete. If u win today u will definitely lose tommorow | | all i do is check the last spin if its odd i choose even 95.5% chance of working!!!!!! | | If the last spin was odd, chances are 47.37% the next one is even. | | Hmmm...obviously the principles of chaos are not well know here ;) | | r u joking with probabilities?? ITS RANDOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM | | vato4geo, roulete isnt angel or evil, its just luck | I draw back my idea!
Roulete is a bad thing. I had lost all of my gold about 25k in an hour. I cant believe that the red colour appear 11 times in a row. That's really kick my ash. | Hey, I disapprove the ones that disapproved me :) You think is random but why don't you believe me that there're higher chances when it's not picked? I'll show you an example:
What are the chances to be a black followed by red in a row? Simple, 50%, because the first one is black, and the second one is 50% chances of black and 50% chances of red.
But what are the chances to be two black followed by a red in a row? Do you say that the chances are equal? Or if you don't believe me, what are the chances of being 10 blacks followed by a red in a row? Are they the same as being just ONE black followed by a red? Of course not! You'll see a lot more often two different colours in a row ( for example a black and then a red ) than 10 blacks and one red. This is because in the first example you need that 50% luck to be the different colour and in the second example you need that 50% luck 10 times, and there're not many chances that 50% that you want will hapen 10 times in a row..
Did you understand my opinion now? :D | yeah, but it's still wrong, the chance will always be 50%, no matter what number/colour has just been there.
but the fact is that if you play roulette for long enough, you will lose money, that's how it's designed:P | | I agree with U Mrniceguy coz U're smart, any contrary idea is a BBS | for TBI:
I saied you were wrong not because I don't understand you, but because you are wrong! ^__^
Probability of 10 blacks then a red? 2,6 every 10.000 (more or less)
Probability of 1 black followed by a red? 22,37%
This BEFORE you run the roulette! But you made an error (confusing frequency with probability) if you try to foresee the future watching the roulette history.
The next run is not infuenced by previous one! The roulette box are always 38 and they have always 1/38 probability to come, EVERY run.
When you had an incredible series of 10 consecutive black in the roulette history, there isn't ANY modification in the next probability. At that moment you have exactly 47,3% probability for both red and black.
Definitely: I can assure you that the next 20 run will not give us 20 consecutive black. I'm ready to bet all my gold on it. BUT I should be insane if I bet all my gold on red only because the previous 19 run were 19 consecutive blacks. Have you got it?
And this is not opinion, this is statistic ;-) | Probability of 10 blacks then a red? 2,6 every 10.000 (more or less)
Sure, probability of 10 blacks is same as 10 black,red,black,red.. and then red.
In fact the probability of RED following any sequence of 10 numbers, red,red,red. black,black,black or zero,zero,zero IS always 47,3%
Sure, 47% is highest chance you can get when betting on one spin, but in the long run, it is still not enough. And I can tell you for sure: Once there will be 20 black in a row and many people will lose. | for Omega22:
don't misunderstand me ;-)
I was trying to explain that forsee a sequence of 11 conecutive numbers (B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-R in the example) means a chance of 2,6 every 10.000 BEFORE you start with the FIRST run of the roulette. BUT after you had 10 B, the next run you will have the following probabilities:
B = 47,3%
R = 47,3%
0 = 2,6 %
00 = 2,6%
...as every run!
This is the reason why many are confusing probability (the same every run) with frequency. On the roulette history you see the past that has nothing to do with the next run.
Once there will be 20 black in a row and many people will lose. For sure! All those who will be ready to bet lot of golds because they see 19 consecutive B on the roulette history. Not me! ^__^
At the same time I think you are not ready to risk all your gold on a sequence of 20 B or R (combinated as you like). Are you? You have more or less 3,14 /10.000.000 chance to win. | for TBI:
I saied you were wrong not because I don't understand you, but because you are wrong! ^__^
Probability of 10 blacks then a red? 2,6 every 10.000 (more or less)
Probability of 1 black followed by a red? 22,37%
This BEFORE you run the roulette! But you made an error (confusing frequency with probability) if you try to foresee the future watching the roulette history.
The next run is not infuenced by previous one! The roulette box are always 38 and they have always 1/38 probability to come, EVERY run.
When you had an incredible series of 10 consecutive black in the roulette history, there isn't ANY modification in the next probability. At that moment you have exactly 47,3% probability for both red and black.
Definitely: I can assure you that the next 20 run will not give us 20 consecutive black. I'm ready to bet all my gold on it. BUT I should be insane if I bet all my gold on red only because the previous 19 run were 19 consecutive blacks. Have you got it?
And this is not opinion, this is statistic ;-)
I understand your point of view, that the next one is not influenced and it has 50% red and 50% black chances. But there's very rare to be 10 black in a row. So this means that if you start with a sum of money and you bet on black, doubleing the stake at every bet, there are high chances of being red in the next 10 turns. So if I double and double and then a red comes, then I'll win the double of the first stake I did, when I started my job. So, it's somehow influenced by the other number because there're low chances of 10 in a row, so one of them will be red. Maybe now you can understand me better..?
P.S. sorry, I forgot about 0 and 00 as I said 50%B/50%R, but this doesn't matter too much. | | u have same chance of 10 times black than red.. think: first time: black.. second time: black.. what are possibilities that mater is red?? THE SAMEEEE.. u wont know when black or red its radom why dont u understand?? T_T.. same possibilities of 10 times in black that 1 in red | for TBI:
^__^ I assure you I understand! But you still made some errors due to common way of dealing with statistic.
suppose some series like this:
B-R-B-B-R-R-R-B-R-B : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop;
R-R-R-R-R-B-B-B-B-B : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop;
B-R-B-R-B-R-B-R-B-R : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop;
B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop;
R-R-R-R-R-R-R-R-R-R : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop;
every combination of 10 B or R : 5,6/10.000 chance to drop.
Remember that ther is a maximum bet (equal to level*1000 gold) so you cannot double forever.
minimum bet 100 gold.
bet 100 ---> 52,7% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 200 ---> 27,8% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 400 ---> 14,6% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 800 ---> 7,7% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 1.600 ---> 4,1% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 3.200 ---> 2,1% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
bet 6.400 ---> 1,1% chance to lose (no matter previous B or R)
You will not be able to double another time if you are lower than level 13. So using a martingale here means:
- 98,9% probability to win 100 gold;
- 1,1% probability to lose 12.700 gold.
To have an idea suppose you play 100 martingale (months of bets) with an average luck:
you lose 1 time = 12.700 gold
and you winn 99 times = 99 x 100 = 9.900 gold
At the end you have lost 2.800 gold!
TBI, I don't know you and I asolutely don't want to offend you in any way!
But statistic is math and it is right or wrong. There is nothing to "understand".
So you don't have to believe me. Take a good book of statistic and made your own calculations if you want. ;-) Just remember, previous run of the roulette means nothing cause every run you have the same number of box: 18 R, 18 B, a 0 and a 00. | Sorry for double post, only one thing to add...
If you use a martingale (I haven't saied you to do it, but if you HAVE to...) you may choose B or R randomly EVERY time you double. The chance to win (better to say the chance to lose) are exacly the same. You don't need to bet every time on B or on R. | If you use a martingale (I haven't saied you to do it, but if you HAVE to...) you may choose B or R randomly EVERY time you double.
Thats the point. Trying to bet on red, after 5 black ones is same like starting to bet red, black, red, black, red, black when sun is up and the shadow of tree in my garden is exactly 2,9 meters long.
- 98,9% probability to win 100 gold;
- 1,1% probability to lose 12.700 gold.
And I have to say this is why Martingale(doubling the bet) could work for 100 times. If you bet on single numbers it could work even longer because you can raise your bet to cover your loses like 60 times before you hit the roof. But one day, the sad day, lets call it the day of Ofca, the 1,1% will happen. :-( | | Ehm, I'm not feeling offended :) There're just different point of views. Well, I'm on + on the roulette ( better winnings than bets ) and I'll use my method in the future even if it's not right, but it works to me :D. |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
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