| Author | Bug! |
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Well.. I've done another 5 MG quest and still no reward.
I only got about 6~8 elements recent 100 quests (contains 25 quests without a reward in a row and another 50 quests with only two reward....only the rest 25 quests are normal)
Assume that i got 8 elements in 100 MG quests. How is the probability?
According to bernoulli distribution ( with p = 0.2 , n = 100 )
the mean = 20 rewards
the variance = np(1-p) = 16
and the standard deviation = the square root of 16 = 4
+++++
np > 10 , so we can use the normal distribution to find the approximate probability.
+++++
Since the z-score of 8 rewards is 3 ( (20-8)/4 = 3 )
Thus the probability with only 8 rewards is about 0.13%!!!
I am almost the worst luck guy in this server !!!????
OR BUG? |
I am almost the worst luck guy in this server !!!????
OR BUG?
Arctic please answer! I think its a Big Bugs! |
Arctic please answer! I think its a Big Bugs!
From how many people you need this answer? What are you hoping for to hear? "We apologise for not giving you enough elements for last 40 quests, thank you for reporting this repeatedly, you are awarded 3 of each elements for your patience."..I suppose thats not going to happen. |
Bugs need to be correct. I just want to know IF IT IS A BUG OR NOT.
If not, ok~ I accept my bad luck. |
| So far I've got 29 elements from 210 MG. So the percentage is less than 14%. Jesus, that far from 20%!! |
There is no bug. Keep doing quests/ hunts, and you'll get more elements/ arts. The "20% chance of getting an element" doesn't automatically mean you'll get 1 element for every 5 quests. Just like flipping a coin, in theory you should have 50% heads and 50% tails, but in practice that is unlikely.
Theoretical probability rarely works out perfectly. |
| Also The "20% chance of getting an element" is nothing official. It is just some research some .ru fellas did according to my information. So it could be an average of 10-30%. Nothing wrong with 14% I suppose, but ..nevermind. |
nothing official??
So Admin, please give us some calculation formulas. ^o^ |
| 0.13%..It's just something too rare happened to me , so i tend to believe either the chance of getting reward is not 20% or rewards are not independent events. |
0.13%..It's just something too rare happened to me
No one said your maths were correct. |
I believe what you do not understand here is this. The chance of getting an element for ANY GIVEN QUEST is 20%.
That is, you have a 1 in 5 chance of receiving and element for THAT SPECIFIC QUEST.
That does NOT mean that it is a 20% over the whole board it is a 20% chance for that ONE quest.
Think of it as a lucky dip where there are 5 parcels in the draw. You pull one out and it's not an Element? Then Don't expect to have a 1 in 4 chance the next go, because that Parcel goes back in and you have yet again a 1 in 5 chance.
This can be presumed RIGHT.
Many people seem to think they deserve an average of 20%.
Again, think of it as a lucky dip.
You pull one out and it is not an element. Then you put that package aside.
For the next draw (Quest) you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting an element because there are only 4 parcels left in the draw right?
You reach in , pull one out and yet again have no element, so you put the package aside.
So then you assume for the next one you have a 1 in 3 chance. If you miss , Then it is a 1 in 2 chance for the next one. If you have failed to get an element on the last 4 attempts, then the 5th parcel is an element and you will magically average out at 20%.
But the directly above presumption is WRONG.
Hope that is clear enough? |
| [Post deleted by moderator Omega22 // Nevermind, still apples with oranges here...] |
| lol hunter arts i cant complain cause ive probaly only gotten like 6 arts outa of all the hunting i do |
| He tried to "calculate" the chance to receive 8 elements from the 100 quests when the chance is exactly 20% to get one...... |
He tried to "calculate" the chance to receive 8 elements from the 100 quests when the chance is exactly 20% to get one......
But why in heavens did he compare the "result" with 20% chance? This is beyond me.. |
Ya I try to calculate how rare if anyone get 8 elements from 100 quests based on two assumptions:
1.the chance is 20%
2.each event is independent ( no matter how many elements i got, the next time i still have 20% to get an element.)
It's a typical statistic problem. |
yes there re no bug
Finally after many MQ i win 2 elements ;)
but i think the we have 5 or 10% chance for win a elements ... so weak .. |
but i think the we have 5 or 10% chance for win a elements ... so weak .
So its bugs |
No Bug.
No sense arguing that it is.
Now you are getting elements at 13%, you want to scream it's a bug. What if later your luck changes and you get 50 elements of your next 100 quests. are you going to complain that it's a bug?
It's 20%. No bug if you get lesser % now, cos you can get a higher % later to even things out.
Thread closed. |
| closed by Lady Takesister (2009-12-14 01:15:14) |
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