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your rate of double elements


Authoryour rate of double elements
Pang, 2 elements can be obtained only after achieving lev4 in the MG. Since then, you only had 12 quests, so it is not unlikely that you got no double elements.
regarding single elements, I am getting them at a rate of about 1 in 4 quests in the last week or so ...

yup, i know that. i just post my MG quest vs elements get.
OK ... so we can add Pang: 0/12 ... but this won't change a lot the previous calculation ... any more high level MG players that could share their results?
Mercenaries' guild: 4 (817) +183
zero doubles
Add my record :)
Mercenaries' guild: 4 (706) +294
double : 0/106

and less than 12 elements after MG lvl 4
double elements: 0/212
double elements:once in 234 quests... :((

though I got lucky... moonstone + tiger claw...
I lied...

690th merc quest: You receive 96 gold, Tiger`s claw, Fire crystal

.. but still only once
once for 466 quest (after lv4)
OK ... let's add the data then:

0/ 12
0/ 183
0/ 106
0/ 212
1/ 234
1/ 466
36/5723 = 0.478%

So, it seems even worse than expected .. we are now at about 0.5% ... any more data to add?
If I remember correct for me was 5 times by 2 elements in 732 quests (i dont think I got 6 times)
once for 466 quest (after lv4)

MG 4 needs 600 points, not 400.
Mercenaries' guild: 4 (789) +211

I have had 7 double drops out of 189 quests.

3 of them included a moonstone & 1 a Tiger Claw
I've got 2 elements twice in 211 mercs.
I just got my first in 194 quests:

You receive 141 gold, Viper venom, Abrasive
Mercenaries' guild: 5 (1401) +99

8 doubles so far.

So it is kind of on par with 1%...
OK .. let's do the sums again

36/5523 ( Iremoved 200 from the total beacuse of msg 32)

7/189 (you really lucky guy!!!!!)
0/ 20

59/7670 = 0.769% (back again towards 1%)
OndaNera you math is strange, I don't follow your logic.

Also would it not be better to wait until you get to 600 successful quests and CAN get a double drop, currently you cannot....
I am not doing this for ME ... it is something for the whole community ...

and I do not think there is anything strange in my math .. I just sum-up the data received from others:
sum(double-elements events)/sum(total MQ done after level4) = approx.(probability)

Since we do not know the actual rate the programmers used for the chance of getting a double element rewards, I am using the so-called inferential statistics ... practically I am trying to calculate from the observations the actual probability
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