| Author | your rate of double elements |
|---|
to be clearer (and sorry for double post):
imagine you have a pot containing some spheres. You do not know how many are in, and what colors they are ... so, what you do if you cannot take them all out and count? you take a sample, let's say 100 spheres, and observe:
24 black, 46 green, 5 red, 25 white
now, you can say that "probably" the chance to draw a sphere with a particular color is:
24% (black), 46% (green), 5% (red), 25% (white)
Of course, this is not necessarily true, but if the number of observations is big enough, the finding is pretty accurate ...
In the same example, imagine you have time, now, to take 1000 spheres out of the pot and obtain:
260 black, 440 green, 60 red, 240 white
now your rate are a bit different than before, but you are also "more confident" that those are closer to the reality (it is called the law of Big Numbers).
This is what I am doing: observing the spheres (i.e.: the number of 2-elements rewards) |
ok i see what you are doing and understand you numbers more
However to truly conform with your law of big numbers, your sample size needs to itself be... a big number. |
| right ... that's why I am trying to collect the observations of as many as possible high level players |
I'm not specialized in maths, but here are a few thoughts about all this:
The most logical probability to get double elements would be of 0.20 * 0.20 = 0.04
It would be about 4% probability to get doubles, so the double probability would be very low, but the rate of single element would be higher (2 * 0.20 * 0.80 = 0.36). Well, since I still didn't reach lvl 4, I can't tell about it, but I believe it's the main advantage we could get by reaching MG4 (appart from a sweet +1 stat point :P).
Your calculated rate of doubles is based on number that is way high enough in order to approch the true probability for sure.
In the one hand, I believe that there is somehow a bias based on how many double events people get for part of them (I myself already observed it while on a really low rate of merc quest elements, we can easily forget a few of those).
In the other hand, even though the number of double is really low, so that a few forgotten double elements could easily rise your calculated probability, it's really unlikely that the double probability would be of 4%, since it would mean that there are 260 forgotten double event, on 59 "declared" double elements. |
Slust,
we already talked before that the rate to get a single element is not higher.
It stays at 20%. The point is that the system is not "rolling" twice. It first rolls to see if you get 1 element and then, ONLY IF the roll for a 1 element is successful, rolls (most likely with a much lower chance than 20%) a second time to check for the 2 element reward.
So far, evidence says that
probability to get 1 element is 20%
probability to get 2 elements is 0.5-1% |
| 1% geez i mean you'll have to do at least 500 to get at least one or even maybe more |
well, assuming the rate is 1%, the chance to get at least 1 in N attempts is:
1-(1-0.01)^N
so, after 100 "rolls" the chance is: 63.4%
after 500 quests you have a chance that at least once you got the 2 elements of 99.3% |
| pang and what u want? double its up from 600 quests, i had 2 times double |
only 4 times double with Mercenaries' guild: 5 (1447) +53
rather low double drop rate for me. mmm |
| Poor pptandppt, you drag the whole statistics down .. XD |
You receive 58 gold, Meteorite shard, Meteorite shard
Make that 8 double drops out of 194 quests now :) |
| I wish the drops were recorded in the game (much like hunt arts) as this data [which we are gathering] relies heavily on memory and honesty... |
2/151
The last were 1 Witch Bloom and 1 Ice Crystal. |
update my stats:
done extra 59 quests: get 2 times by 2 elements
So in total you can add (59 quests and 2 success) |
Mercenaries' guild: 4 (743) +257
I've never seen a duoble reward... |
I have my personal records
from 1371th quest to 1820th quest now.
2 time double elements:1394th and 1654th
total 112 elements:
Ice crystal:14
Moonstone:12
Fire crystal:16
Abrasive:12
Toadstool:13
Windflower:9
Meteorite shard:6
Tiger`s claw:14
Viper venom:6
Witch bloom:10 |
| 1/95 |
it works this way:
after battle random circle count your 20% chnce to get element. If your chance triggered, random circle count again 20% to get second element. But if not in first turn, count is over. So chance to get one element - 20%, double - 4% |
also, my first quest at 4 MG-level - got Moonstone+Tiger`s claw ;-)
I got near 10 Moonstones in total |
for KAMAZ:
Nah, if its so, chance to get 1 element is only 16%, and 4% for 2. |
