| Author | i dont get elements:( |
|---|
| i did like 20 mg with 10 reputation and no elements:(( |
People says there is a 20% that you get a element but tha doenst mean you get a element every 1-5 attempt.
maybe bad luck? |
| once i had 50 in a row without elements (in herieswm) so it is just bad luck |
I think some of you are exaggerating. I know I've gotten some bad luck streaks before, but the chances of getting some of these longer streaks are extremely low.
For example 20 mg wins with no elements:
0.8^20 = 0.011529215 This means 1% chance of this happening.
50 in a row without elements:
0.8^50 = .0000142724769 or 0.001% or 1 out of 10000 |
yes but you can t win elements during 20 quest and win after 5 elements in 5 quest ...
i think there re no rules for that ! just luck
and the reputation don t win more elements just the time between the quest |
| sure that im not EXAGERATING!! |
for Pantheon:
I tried to find a lower bound for the total number of MG quests done and came up with 1.27 million, in this context 50 quests without elements doesn't look this unlikely. |
| I got 45 Elements from 301 MG quest. Thats less than 15% |
| I did 3 MG quests and got 3 in a row =) |
for GodOfMan:
Better to get 1 Meteorite Shard than 3 Toadstool, Lolz!! |
for GodOfMan:
Better to get 1 Meteorite Shard than 3 Toadstool, Lolz!!
I got three Meteorite Shards |
for fusei:
lower bound for the total number of MG quests done and came up with 1.27 million
What did you use?
0.8^x is the correct formula to use for calculating the probability of no elements in x quests.
80% of no elements in a quest
x = quests won in a row
And with any formula with an ^ the numbers rapidly increases (or decreases) as x increases. |
I got three Meteorite Shards
could you put the three links???
i COULDNT find them in your log:( |
What did you use?
This http://guildofheroes.ru/lords.php and something pretty similar to a Riemann sum. |
for fusei:
Oh, now I understand your original post.
The problem with your reasoning is that you assume my formula probability is for not only all players but all current quests done.
The formula I used is only to determine the probability that anyone get 0 elements from doing X quests in a row.
Also most players will probably misuse the formula by saying that from MG 80 to 99 they received 0 elements and thus use the 0.8^20 calculation. Since they cherry picked those particular 20 quests out of all the quests they have done, then they have actually skewed probability lower than it should be. |
I got three Meteorite Shards
could you put the three links???
i COULDNT find them in your log:(
GodOfMan Logs
01-03-10 23:28: Sold elements: "Meteorite shard"(s) for 2800 gold to MyDoom as lot #1160332. Commission: 28
01-03-10 11:39: Sold elements: "Meteorite shard"(s) for 2950 gold to lilas as lot #1158072. Commission: 30
01-03-10 02:05: Transferred element(s): 'Meteorite shard' 1 pcs. to Chance12 . Transaction price: 2700 Gold: buy elements |
for Pantheon:
That's pretty much my point, I also did a calculation how big my personal chance was to get a row of 50 or more quest without elements of my 437 quests and ended up a bit above 4.2%. So if you can retrospectively pick some quests it's not unlikely to find some. |
I have a documented 0/20 mercs hehe. I guess I am in the worst 1% for this stuff ;)
Seems to even out long term. I am keeping track of my drops in bugs+reports. We'll see how it looks in a few weeks. |
