| Author | "Luck" no trigger at all |
|---|
https://www.lordswm.com/war.php?lt=-1&warid=563039315
My alt did a hunt <The one above> and he didnt luck at all even though he has 1 luck parameter
The turn count exceeded beyond 15+ even with 100% chance it did not trigger
is this a issue or its just that i am having wayy... too much bad luck ;_; |
| [Post deleted by moderator Lord Khellendros // Not helpful - If you got nothing helpful to add, then don't post] |
| with 1 luck you can expect it to not trigger at all... since the probablity is quite low. |
From last three months its like hell on earth soo much bad luck lost most games i have played in this time not just dis enroll problems etc..
Sticking to the point- why didnt it trigger?..even with 100% chance if not then i played approx 17 turns so it comes around 90% and 80% chance..
i lost to 10-20% -.-'? |
with 1 luck you can expect it to not trigger at all... since the probablity is quite low.
In case if it hasn't trigger for several consecutive turns, the odds of getting it on the next turn increase each time, and vice versa. In a hypothetical experiment with infinite amount of triggering, the general probability is still equal to 10% per morale/luck point. |
The probability of morale/luck triggers = F^(1+[moves befallen so far]-[moves not befallen so far]*F/(1-F)), whence F is Min(0.5;luck/10) or Min(0.5;morale/10), each stack having its own independent counters for morale and luck.
https://www.lordswm.com/help.php?section=35
Notice that each stack has its own independent counter. So no single stack had enough attack for an 100% guaranteed luck hit.
It was unlucky but not a bug. |
| [Post deleted by moderator Lord Khellendros // Not helpful - If you got nothing helpful to add, then don't post] |
^
Player banned by moderator Lord Khellendros until 2013-09-28 11:56:18 // Bump is not allowed in QnH |
stacks that hit;
2 * by succubi
1 * by 3 spawns
2 * by 48 spawns
3 * by 18 cerberi
3 * by 18 cerberi
3 * by 10 hell horses
1 * by 44 incendaries
1 * by 5 gated hell horses
1 * by 9 gated cerberi
1 * by 9 gated cerberi
The probability of morale/luck triggers = F^(1+[moves befallen so far]-[moves not befallen so far]*F/(1-F)),
F = 0.1
First attack:
P = 0.1^(1+[0]-[0]*0.1/(1-0.1))
= 0.1
Second attack:
P = 0.1^(1+[0]-[1]*0.1/(1-0.1))
= 0.129
Third attack:
P = 0.1^(1+[0]-[2]*0.1/(1-0.1))
= 0.167
So chance to not get luck two times in a row is:
(1-0.1) * (1-0.129) = 0.7839
So chance to not get luck three times in a row is:
(1-0.1) * (1-0.129) * (1-0.167) = 0.653
so chance that you had 5* 1 time no luck, 2* 2 times no luck and 3* 3 times no luck is
(0.9)^5 * (0.653)^2 * (0.7839)^3 = 0.121 = 12% |
Sorry, small mistake in the last line. I switched the 2nd and 3rd by accident. It should be:
(0.9)^5 * (0.7839)^2 * (0.653)^3 = 0.10
= 10% chance for not having a single luck trigger in the entire game. |
Luck/Morale trigger counter is seperate for every creature and also note the the number of trigger/no trigger counter will effect only when the creature hits the target not when wait or defend.
So with 1 luck parameter if you hit with a creature 10 times then approx 2 will be lucky hits. |
