| Author | How often will i get a Meteorite shard ? |
|---|
| If probability to get one element is 0.2, then probability to get 2 elements is 0.2 + 0.2 - 0.2*0.2 = 0.36 |
for Robai:
They are not 2 independent rolls, 2nd roll is only given if 1st roll is successful. |
But statically getting 2 elements seems to be much rarer than getting 1, so it doesn't seems like the 2nd roll has 20% to be successful.
*points at Geryon's profile* |
the formula of Robai is the probability to have at least 1 element, with 2 independant rolls of 0.2 probability each.
but i don't see the usefullness of such a formula here. |
| *statistically |
Sorry, my bad, ignore that formula above :)
(shame on me)
It should be this formula:
n!/(k!*(n-k)!)*0.2^k*(1-0.2)^(n-k)
1)
If your MG level < 4 then only one (i.e. n=1) element can be taken.
Probability of one (i.e. k=1) element is
1!/(1!*0!)*0.2^1*(1-0.2)^(1-1) = 0.2
Probability of none (i.e. k=0) elements is
1!/(0!*1!)*0.2^0*(1-0.2)^(1-0) = 0.8
Sum check: 0.2 + 0.8 = 1
2)
If your MG level >= 4 then two (i.e. n=2) elements can be taken.
Probability of two (i.e. k=2) elements is
2!/(2!*(2-2)!)*0.2^2*(1-0.2)^(2-2) = 0.04
Probability of one (i.e. k=1) element is
2!/(1!*(2-1)!)*0.2^1*(1-0.2)^(2-1) = 0.32
Probability of none (i.e. k=0) elements is
2!/(0!*(2-0)!)*0.2^0*(1-0.2)^(2-0) = 0.64
Sum check: 0.04 + 0.32 + 0.64 = 1
Those calculations are correct if:
a) there are n tries to get one element (n=1 if MG<4 and n=2 otherwise)
b) probability of getting an element is the same on every try and is equal to 0.2
c) the number 0.2 is the probability of ANY element (this means that the same element can appear on the 2nd try)
Did anyone ever get two the same elements at once? |
| d) the formula also means that if MG >= 4 then you get 2 tries to get an element, i.e. if you didn't get an element on the 1st try then you roll again and may get it on the 2nd try (that's why probability 0.32 > 0.2, i.e. probability to get one element is higher if MG >= 4). |
Simple clear answer from me:
at MG0 after succesful quest, u have 10% chance to get meteor shard n 10% get toadstool |
| Just take it this way...I did over 25 merc missions this week...and only got ONE element from them == and I have a "double element" chance due to my MG level. |
LeveL 0 Mercany Guild
So, How often will i get a Meteorite shard ?
Havent got one for ages.!
ThanksInAdvance.
You are quity lucky. In 41 MQ you got 6 toadstools and 3 meteorite shards, so you got 1 elements more than you could expected:) |
