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| Author | Anniversary events |
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Your result
Victories: 38
Total combats: 50
2 Diamonds,
3 Rare arts, 7-8 Other arts, Many many armaments, super gold.
Nice fun. :)
Anniversary event:
More than 500 Battles in total. (100 Battles average a day).
going through
Treasure hunt, HG, MG, WG.
Still artifacts set left. 25%
More than 600 FSP earned
But super fun 5 days of anniversary :D :P :) | almost same as the above, 1min MG quest delay is super fun along with free mount because of abc.
thanks, and happy anniversary lordswm | What is the chance of getting 6 same artifacts in 38 battles?
I could loot dozens of reward including gold, arts, armaments and diamonds.
I got 6 band of incessancy which I are worthless for me because I play as magic really rare. Anyway, battles were in free given arts so nothing to complain about. Just something which seems strange for me. Something is not working correct here or it was just a nice joke :) | | Coincidence. The chance is not that insanely low. | | I think it first works out what general type of prize (diamonds, gold, rare arts, armaments etc). One of those options I think is shop arts, of which it will select from what you are wearing. Within this since you wear two rings, the chance is perhaps doubled, so the liklihood of getting in total the number of rings you got is no doubt a little less good a reward compare to what it could be, though perhaps not as unlikely as would first be expected. Of course if you were not yourself wearing any rings of incessancy then that theory goes out the window! | i also think that the shop arts you get are based on what you are wearing at that time ...
so in that case getting ring would be 2/9 chance which isnt that low... | for latawica:
i got 6 bow of midnight still. its completely random i would say | that theory goes out the window!
I was not wearing those rings :)
i got 6 bow of midnight still. its completely random i would say
Getting 6 same intems is completely random?
Maybe random is which item you will get in 6 pieces :P | | Perhaps then rather than looking at what you are wearing, it looks at your build and level and chooses from shop arts what it thinks is most appropriate. Were you charmer elf for the treasure hunt quests, if so it is perhaps not unreasonable for it to take your build and figure ring on incessancy is a good choice. In this situation the odds of 2/9 6 times is not astronomical for someone to have got considering the sample size. Of course all this is based on a reasonable number of assumptions and could be complete rubbish, however I think it does tend to fit the data and is something which when coding for it would also be a straight forward way of doing it. (doing it based on what you are wearing would allow the system to be biased or create faults if you did not wear an art in a specific slot, so referencing a standard set based around character level and build would be easier. | for latawica:
i mean that it is not impossible for him to get the same art 5 time since i got 6 same art =) | it looks at your build and level and chooses from shop arts what it thinks is most appropriate. Were you charmer elf for the treasure hunt quests, if so it is perhaps not unreasonable for it to take your build and figure ring on incessancy is a good choice.
I doubt that. The loots include rare arts. | for virtual_vitrea:
I was extending an idea from earlier so initially I think it first works out what general type of prize (diamonds, gold, rare arts, armaments etc) and then if the option is shop arts I think it will generate it based upon your build and level. For this while there are 9 slots, it doesn;t have to be coded to be in ninths, they may have done it in percentages and arbitrarily assigned the odds to rings to a higher level - who knows! | i think it's just random, there are classes, of course( gold, diamond, rare, shop, etc..) but beside that, it's just level-based, and levels are grouped like they are in portals and events rewards (so for example, lvls 12,13 and 14 get the same ring, but lvl 15 gets the next one).
I base this last idea on the fact that, if i remember well, when i was lvl 13-14, last year, i got rings for those levels (signet ring of might or penumbral ring), and this year i had 4 rings, one sorcerer signet and 3 dragon's eyes. | i think it's just random
It's always random's fault! | | Got 4 ring of torment so 6 same art may b possible. | Imagine rolling dice 5 times. Getting something like "3" all those 5 times might make you think it's rigged, however, let's say you got 3,5,2,4,6. Now, you would think that is normal. However, the chance for either of those two sequences to occur is actually exactly the same. Not to say either of them are likely, but just goes to show that the concept of probability is in general non-intuitive to us.
The chance is random for the arts that we get. After playing 50 battles and winning almost 40 times, it is quite expected to get the same art multiple times. And yes, 6 arts might seem like quite a bit to you, but out of the tens of thousands who played, it is extremely likely, and in fact almost certain that someone will get it.
Compare it to lottery. The chance for someone to win a huge lottery is insanely low, much lower than getting these 6 arts. However let's say that a person wins the lottery, that would not imply that the lottery was biased just because an extremely unlikely event happened for that one person, however quite expected if you look at the big picture. Out of the millions that played the lottery, it is extremely likely that someone will win.
Another proof is that so far no one who posted got the same ring 6 times, this goes to show that it happened only to you out of the several people who commented, thus you were just lucky(or unlucky) for that event to have happened to you, and that there is no bias in the allotment of the arts. | | I had gotten 6 ring of torments allready during half of the event. It felt like the event fixes upon a specific artifact for you and chances are higher for it to drop till you get max 6. Has anyone gotten more than 6 of same artifact? | for Lawton:
One has to remember whatever the answer is it has to match all data, remembering there is a selection bias based around who posts what they got (you are more likely to post here if you got multiple versions of the same art) though of course it is still valid data. One must also consider we are looking at this from the opposite side of the lense and must consider the fact that this comes down to a piece of code written by some people in order to make a game to make money, possibly without the awareness originally of what issues may arise from it.
In this scenario as with many the simplest way of doing it is likely to be what they did, as it woul dbe to no benefit to make a complicated solution to coding how art drops are generated. I therefore think it unlikely that they put a cap on the number of any one art as this would therefore require additional coding to which I would see very limited motivation for them to do (especially considering they are coding it prior to it happening and so only anticipating any issues that could occur). Probabilities naturally tend to mean a low number of people getting multiples of the same art, so putting extra time and effort into this would be a disproportionate amount of effort put in.
This is why I think it likely that it is from two rounds of options from a random number generator - first to select the type of reward, the second which specific reward that is. For rare arts it is probably even odds for all arts which considering there are many of them would correlate with the fact that no one has reported any significant level of duplicates for these. For shop arts the fact that there are so many duplicates suggest ths must be picked from a much smaller pool - the higher the number of duplicates people are getting the more likely this pool is small. It clearly filters this through only level relevant arts - it is suggestive with gifts that they segregate arts based upon either might or mage related so since there are some with many of the same duplicates and reducing the pool to select from would result in more duplicates then I think it likely it only picks from one of these options. I think this is based upon current build as some people (though not many) have got items from both sets. I think it more likely that this is from them having a different build for one of the battles than from it picking from a higher number of possible arts as this would reduce the chances of people getting many duplicates still further. I also think it likely that some arts have higher odds than others - rings being the main example, which is why we have a higher number of people getting large duplicates in rings than other arts. | For rare arts it is probably even odds for all arts which considering there are many of them would correlate with the fact that no one has reported any significant level of duplicates for these. For shop arts the fact that there are so many duplicates suggest ths must be picked from a much smaller pool - the higher the number of duplicates people are getting the more likely this pool is small.
think level: rare arts are available at lower levels, and the routine definitely exclude items that are above your level (nobody received an art that they can't wear);
so for rare arts, all are in the pool, while for shop arts, only those around your level can be obtained.
Yes, the pools are definitely different in size :) | | But has anyone gotten more than 6 of the same artifact? If not then it seems there is a cap. |
This topic is long since last update and considered obsolete for further discussions.
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