| Author | [news] economic reforms |
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And events such as current portsl will see more wishing to switch to produce maskrobe etc.
Will be interesting to see how often between a switch/ price change is allowed.
If done properly this could be a great change |
| I think we should consider facility shares more like shares on stock market that pay dividend. Facilithes similar to stocks will earn less or more, depanding on trends created in the game. Not everyone will be happy with their investment. Buying cheap will help but as we do not yet know what is cheap and what is expensive, first months will be a risky gamble. |
Some info for you from Russian forum.
1) Admin said the market price of a share can be some 100k
2) Only a few people got more than 1 share, but there are folks who got 4.
3)However it has scope for monopolisation by the extremely rich
yes, big clans are already discussing how to get control over the facilities they "own".
4) most of people are already ready to immediately sell their shares as soon as it will be possible
5) Since this is a copy of what was happening in Russia in 1990-s when all the plants and businesses were "nationalized", and everyone got a small share, we think it's all because of time portals/ We just jumped back into 90-s. Never mess with time!
Thanks for sharing.
As for 4), I think it is interesting because it is the only way to get a return on investment which will make money more valuable IMO. Of course there's a risk that shares price drops off and end up in a net loss. |
Since most of players are Russians you should consider also Russian mentality)
They ofren buy things which are useless and too expensive for them 0 just to pretend they are not too exprnsive. And some will try to collect 51% of some plants - just to feel like some local kings.
Thus, currently prices like 200-300k are iscussed on Russian forums, 100k is considered too low a price. But the first day of trade will surely see many selling their shares for nothing - just to get some gold for the roulette)
Personally I think I'll not sell lower than 150, but rather I'll keep it and see how thongs will go. |
| Where can we see how much gold we are getting from our share's ? |
| It's just a speculation of what the share prices could be when trading is introduced. |
| There is a big difference in the profitability of facilities. Look at some of the top players, eg Algor. My single facility should yield about as much gold for me as all 3 of his combined, and less than some other ones. I've seen variation of profit from around the 7k mark through to 150k and likely more. In either event even if you are getting 1.5k per week for a 1% share it is still going to take 2 years to recoup your cost at a bit pricey if 150k. However if course if you sell it again for the same price, it just becomes profit, sober they are unlikely to depreciate. |
| bit pricey by the way this was meant to be share price. |
Thus, currently prices like 200-300k are iscussed on Russian forums, 100k is considered too low a price.
Come on, this is worth no less than 500k) |
I know I'm gonna sell mine on day one. So yeah, 500k sounds about right.
They ofren buy things which are useless and too expensive for them 0 just to pretend they are not too exprnsive. And some will try to collect 51% of some plants - just to feel like some local kings. Yeah this is something where the rich guys can simply run the poor ones out (by paying them, of course).
There's no real scope for the individual that's not a millionaire (my guess).
What I wonder is whether MCs will rise to the challenge, and coordinate economic activity |
But the first day of trade
Any ETA for this? |
| What does it mean 'area' from the facility description? It's an orientation number for the admins or there is something logical in it? |
for Setsunu:
I think that it is related to the amount of total posts available in the facility. I checked a few area 4 facilities and they all had 12 worker posts for exemple. |
| It would need extra checking, but the amount of posts looks to be 3 times area. |
It's true ^
Just a script to confirm. |
Come on, this is worth no less than 500k)
Yesterday one "professional" spent all the day telling everyone the price can't be lower than 1kk. And average must be 1.5-2 kk... I offered him to buy my share for just 500k, but he didn't look very interested)
But the first day of trade
Any ETA for this?
Nothing official, just one thong. Within 3 months, because those who will not appear in the game for 3 months must, as said in the news, loose their shares/
Sure, we believe it will be sooner, maybe after the first weekly payment.
What does it mean 'area' from the facility
Number of workers and max amount of stored goods depend on it. Compare obsidian shield plants and you will see. When the storage is full no one can work there until someone buys an item. |
Happily I will discuss below points with those interested in game's economy.
1. Share's market price can be about 2-4 times yearly dividend. As dividend will change in time, also shares will change in value. Initial months when broke and roulette players sell should make price bottom and later prices will increase. After maybe 3-6 months, change in dividend will lead the price.
2. Introducing shares will influence estate and element prices. I guess prices of estate and elements will fall and this will stay low as long as shares are not overexpensive. Passive income from shares will be more attractive than constantly trading elements and estates, estate certificates.
3. In the long run maybe 6+ months element prices trend should reverse and start going up.
4. In the long run estate prices trend will not reverse and will continue down. Amount of estates on market is increasing faster than amount of players playing the game. New estates dont get rented because of high ID. Therefore estates should not go up again. Posible long periods when prices are stable but then we might see higher decrease when sellers get impatient not being able to sell at old high prices.
This is all assumption based on present knowledge, we will see what are the other changes that admins are planning. |
OK here are my predictions, I think elrond is mostly correct but there are some things to add.
The economics of this are actually considerably more complex than the realms of this fantasy game. I think the admins have seriously underestimated exactly what they are letting out of the box here.
The share is not really a share and in an efficient market I would expect these to price as a strange kind of perpetual bond with variable yield. Bond prices are complex to understand and this will be extra confusing because it also has elements of an equity investment and convertible bond. Nothing exactly like this exists in the real world and it makes for a very interesting economic case study.
The key price driver will be the inverse of the yield as in elronds point 1 above. This yield is up for the market to decide based upon expected return and is anybodies guess. As these are 'risk free*' investments this won't track real world models. Under my initial estimates I would have said 15-25% gross yield but comments from the player base suggest it may actually be higher. I won't give away what I think the prices will be but I think the true value of these is higher than some other comments suggest.
1. IPO day will be crazy, 200 securities listing at once
2. There will be massive pricing inefficiencies in the first few days as the server decides on a commonly accepted EV, this could extend for months or longer. People are likely to overpay for the top facilities, flame helmet obsidian boots etc. I did some analysis yesterday that shows the income from these facilities are 4 standard deviations above the mean and the chance of it being priced correctly is low.
3. Over the medium to long term I think there will be a yield drivedown and costs for the same share will rise but it depends on how they price initially.
4. There will be high single digit inflation in the game as a result but this will take a while to start happening. It will eventually have to be controlled by admins whether they realise it or not. (my guess is they won't notice until it becomes an issue)
5. Markets for player produced items: elements, hunter arts, TGI etc. will be open for market manipulation. but costs will trend higher over time
6. Certain MCs will control large amounts of the wealth .com will seriously lag in this regard.
7. As predicted above estates will lose a huge amount of value and become even less relevant.
This is mostly speculative, admin policies and exactly how they implement transactions and voting rights will be a big deal. The voting rights is an important issue that others have not really addressed.
This is really quite similar to the 1990s privatisation of Russian industry in the wake of communism. Interesting times ahead. |
Point 4 of Acean's post:
How will there be an inflation? Would artifact prices increase? I am a little confused. |
They ofren buy things which are useless and too expensive for them 0 just to pretend they are not too exprnsive. And some will try to collect 51% of some plants - just to feel like some local kings.
You guys are underestimating this
Price isn't reflective of value
Look at mirror for instance. The price for mirror in the market (and the price lots of people are willing to pay), isn't dependent on cpb. I've seen mirrors sold for more 1k/dura which had no repeair value, just because they happen to be cheapest on the list at the time.
There are lots of people who buy what's first on the market, cuz they have money to spare and are after convenience.
How may enchanted Imperial sets are out there that have seen <100 battles, and will see <100 battles more, because people had money to spend.
Same will go for shares. Lot of people will buy for the sake of buying, and disregarding what value they can get back out of it. |
