| Author | Whiner theme |
|---|
| whats wrong with flipping burgers? |
| nothing is wrong with that but judging by how kchong uses that phrase in the forums it seems that he thinks it is derogatory in some capacity, that is why it will surely enrage him. |
for Igles:
when did i last say flipping burger lol u sell muruku lol |
| At the end of the day, your team lost and you didn't help them win ;) |
| Guys calm down please. I do regret not being elaborate in my first post itself which made it appear that I was calling on Kchong rudely so I apologize for that. But I must thank randomr1 for putting it into more precise terms. The difference he stated is that we didn't know to expect that latter rounds would have fewer players, yet I am saying that this was a foregone conclusion. Notice the round 3 results, griffins won but there nobody could argue that 20/30 result would have been much more decisive than round 2. Anyway, save your energy for next event :) |
whats wrong with flipping burgers?
Uhm... You get your hands all greasy perhaps? |
| For now a warning to you all. This can escalate quickly and i will start to delete posts and ban authors. Behave. It is a relaxed thread but insults will not be tolerated. |
for Marquis Thornwald:
better to be flipping them than eating them, thats for sure. |
all of us are in agreement about the math
Yeah exactly, this is just a random interesting problem!
It's a lot about the assumptions really. For example the score difference in round 2 was a lot larger than the difference in round 1, if your assumptions predicted that then round 2 matters less. If your assumption was round 2 => fewer players => smaller point difference, then you would predict round 2 matters more.
Moving on, this reminds me of a problem that demonstrates the importance of what you assume. Feel free to try it out ^^
Problem: Suppose 2 players play a game, and the first to 2 wins is the winner. Would you bet on the winner being decided in 2 games or 3 games?
Since we have no information about the players, a natural assumption is that they have a 50-50 chance. What would you bet under this assumption? Can you come up with a better assumption? If you can, comment what you would bet based on that.
Note that the problem is stated as a bet, not like "what's the probability of...". That's because calculated probability depends on information available and assumptions. On a math exam those will be well known, but in many real world scenarios they are unclear. Being able to come up with the best assumptions and most effectively using available information is what separates good statisticians from us lwm forum noobs :P |
I would say that the game being settled in 2 trials is more likely,
I would approach this in the following way, i would take the probability of player 1 winning and range it from 1 to zero, assuming this is a zero sum game and draws are not allowed the player 1 will have a probability of winning equal to P and the second player would have a probability of winning equal to 1-P, once we start varying this p from 1 to 0 we can clearly see that it is more likely that the game will be settled in two trials at the edges of these limits while it becomes equally likely that it will be settled in 3 and 2 at the P=.5 mark which would have an identical sample space to three coin tosses. So over the interval P varies from 1 to 0 it is more likely that the game will end in two tries. I might be completely wrong about this as well but this is what i think. |
There will of course be other possibilities like the game not being zero sum or maybe zero sum with possibilities of draws and so ok and so forth which would affect the math, above is the most simple solution i could be bothered to type out :p, like i said name calling is way less bothersome and more effective than using math eg.
when did i last say flipping burger lol u sell muruku lol
Isn’t muruku the name of your mother kchong? |
for randomr1:
If it's a purely RNG-based game, then I simply wouldn't bet. I don't like 50-50 odds for betting if it costs me my word or guarantees. These odds are very good if I could bet with something that I didn't care to lose. This reminds me of your roulette habit where the odds were never even 50/50 :P Sorry to bring this up.
In real-world examples, there is usually some way to deduce the relevant skills of participating players. The higher the difference in skill, the more likely it ends up as a two-round game instead of three. |
for Igles:
While I believe your math is correct, it seems to be an incorrect application because it doesn't prove that 2 trials is more likely.
I find this scenario too bland. It is like assigning heads to Igles, and tails to me. Then we are tossing the coin three times. Now you ask which is the most likely scenario: heads - tails - heads OR tails - heads - tails versus two consecutive heads -heads -x OR Tails - Tails -x? The first condition represents a 3 round win, and the second condition represents a 2 round win. Both are equally probable outcomes. Hence, mathematically it is 50-50 ultimately. That's how I see it. Again, this is intuitional for the most part. I admit my understanding of mathematics is probably rudimentary (not as bad as Kchong thinks however :P). |
Oh, my Ghosh. I come here to relax and have fun. But you guys try to teach me some math I can never understand......
:-D :-D :-D |
| Bring on the next event please...Where's portal demon xD |
But you guys try to teach me some math I can never understand......
Isn't that why we're all having such a good time? ;)
Can you come up with a better assumption?
I give half of the money from the bet to player A to lose on purpose and I bet on two games win. |
Isn’t muruku the name of your mother kchong?
LOL! yes and your mother is called chapati :D |
| and yes we need next event asap. hopefully mercenary event or will they wait till auto battle over before do event>>? |
it seems to be an incorrect application because it doesn't prove that 2 trials is more likely.
it actually does prove it given that there exist some players who are not evenly matched, you either don't understand this or once again i wasn't clear enough, either way imma head out of this conversation because i am really bad at explaining this without the help of a damn board and spare time.
LOL! yes
glad to know that i sell muruku then 3:)
and your mother is called chapati :D
the amount of information you think you know about me is fascinating, might i suggest going a little easy on the bat soup.
That reminds me, Guess who is back, back again.
Player banned by moderator Meshy until 2525275514-05-17 00:19:44 // BOW |
| I'd like to whine about the diamond sales being done on too low of a frequency, need a sale every 15 days! |
