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2 elements as reward [continued]



Author2 elements as reward [continued]
Since the topic
https://www.lordswm.com/forum_messages.php?tid=1883019
was closed I had to make a new one.

(I really hate to create the same topic, please don't close topics so fast in the future, wait at least 24 hours since creation of the topic before closing it)


Similar discussion was some time ago:
https://www.lordswm.com/forum_messages.php?tid=1866634&page=1#272348

Probabilities by Kotrin
If you are MG 4 or higher:
- Chances of getting zero element: 80%
- Chances of getting one element: 16%
- Chances of getting two elements: 4%

are correct if:
- you try to get 1st element with probability 0.2
- you try go get 2nd element with probability 0.2, but only when you've got 1st element


If there were 2 independent rolls to get an element then probabilities were theses:
- Chances of getting zero element: 64%
- Chances of getting one element: 32%
- Chances of getting two elements: 4%
(those calculations are provided in the link above)
[Player banned by moderator Omega22 until 2010-06-08 02:09:33 // Forum rule 2.7. Next time, ask any mod to reopen the topic.]
- Chances of getting zero element: 64%
- Chances of getting one element: 32%
- Chances of getting two elements: 4%


Is correct

From Arctic's mouth..."Think of rolling 1 "5" sided dice two times. That is how your double elements works"
I think I remember reading somewhere else...that the 'true' probability of getting 2 elements is actually closer to 1% than 4%.

I have been keeping track of my element drops for the last 202 merc missions, and my ratio has been 1.48%

So yeah...it is rare. Good luck!
I have been keeping track of my elements from 1266 (MQ), and now im on 1561 done. I have evidence on my inform page. I have get doble elements: 1475, 1490, 1580 and 1623.
that means : 4 times for 300 MQ done
From Arctic's mouth..."Think of rolling 1 "5" sided dice two times. That is how your double elements works"

Nope, it's not correct (and my info is from Arctic as well).

If there were two independent rolls for Elements, chances of getting one Element would increase a lot as soon as you are entitled to win two for a given mercenary quest. This is definitely not the case.

In other words, the 5-sided die is rolled an extra time only if the first roll gave a 1.

I remember when this discussion took place other people posted their rates of 2-Elements drops, and it was indeed around 4%.
exactly waht i said in he previous topic there is 20% chance to roll 1 or get 1 element

then if you roll 1 then there is 20% chance to get second element = 4%

however the real drop rates are around 1.5% which means that its not 20% chance to get second element but around 7.5% or even upto 10%

(my theory)
People, chance to get 1 element - 0.2. Chance to get 2 elements - 0.2*0.2=0.04 (because second lement make dropped only after drop first element).
my ratio has been 1.48%&&4 times for 300 MQ done . Probability theory talk us that with small quantity of rolls real percent can greatly differ from theoretical percent.

Chance of getting avers on coin is 50%. Yes? But if you dropped coin 2 times, you can take 2 avers. And you calculate that chance of drop avers - 100%?
You receive 229 gold, Abrasive, Abrasive i got it on quest 675
I don't know, maybe i am just unlucky.
1/305 MQ-s currently.
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